2025年4月宏观经济预测报告：PPI或进一步走低

Production Sector - In April, the daily coal consumption of 460 power plants decreased month-on-month, reflecting seasonal demand characteristics, while inventory days increased compared to 2024[4] - The operating rate of blast furnaces in 247 steel mills increased significantly month-on-month, with daily pig iron output also rising, indicating robust industrial activity[4] - Despite high production levels, prices for rebar and coking coal remain under pressure, suggesting continued profit squeeze on upstream production due to weak downstream demand[4] Consumption Sector - April retail sales of passenger cars increased significantly year-on-year but saw a substantial month-on-month decline due to external tariff impacts[7] - The box office for April was 1.192 billion yuan, with "Nezha 2" contributing 53% of the total, indicating weak performance from other films and a decline in non-essential consumption willingness[7] - The average daily transaction area for second-hand homes in 30 cities fell by 25.4% month-on-month, with second-tier cities experiencing the largest declines[7] Economic Indicators - Industrial value-added in April is projected to grow by approximately 5.1% year-on-year, while retail sales growth is expected to be around 4%[8] - Fixed asset investment growth is forecasted at about 4%, with export and import growth rates estimated at 2.5% and -6%, respectively[8] - CPI and PPI are expected to be -0.1% and -2.8% year-on-year, respectively, indicating deflationary pressures in the economy[8] Fiscal Policy - General public budget revenue is expected to decline by 1.3% year-on-year, reflecting the impact of external tariffs and reduced domestic demand[21] - General public budget expenditure is projected to grow by 3.8% year-on-year, supported by high spending in social security and employment sectors[21]