申万宏源策略一周回顾展望：业绩验证的关键点

Key Points Summary Group 1: Performance Verification Key Points - The overall A-share non-financial profit showed a seasonal weakness in Q4 2024 but a strong recovery in Q1 2025, with a year-on-year net profit growth of 6.3% in Q1 2025 compared to a -55% decline in Q4 2024, indicating a historical high recovery level [1][5][4] - The supply-demand dynamics remain weak, with a significant decline in fixed asset turnover rates, leading to reduced profitability. The capital expenditure and construction projects in the midstream manufacturing sector have reached historical lows, indicating a clear downward trend in midstream manufacturing supply [1][10][4] - The performance pressure on the export chain is yet to manifest, while the profitability of companies involved in overseas operations has outperformed that of the export chain, suggesting a deepening divergence due to tariff impacts starting from Q2 2025 [1][18][20] Group 2: Industry Trends and Opportunities - Key thriving industries are concentrated in consumption (benefiting from the old-for-new policy for durable goods and some new consumption), pharmaceuticals (CXO, innovative drugs), and AI computing (improved orders for chips, optical modules, servers, and IDC) [1][22][27] - After the disclosure of Q1 2025 reports, the industries with upward revisions in profit expectations include electronics, computers, retail, steel, and media [1][25][35] - The current stage favors technology investment opportunities, particularly in domestic AI computing and robotics, which are expected to show higher short-term thematic elasticity compared to consumption sectors [1][39][39]