SIA(600009) Minsheng Securities·2025-05-05 06:23Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Cautious Recommendation" rating for the company [6][8]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a core beneficiary of the recovery in international demand, particularly due to the expansion of foreign personnel exchanges. Despite short-term pressures on duty-free sales, the international passenger volume at Pudong Airport remains a significant channel for duty-free businesses in the medium to long term [6]. - The company reported a revenue of 12.37 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 12%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.93 billion yuan, up 107% year-on-year [3][7]. - The report highlights the resilience of non-aeronautical businesses, with advertising and logistics revenues benefiting from the recovery in passenger traffic [6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 12.37 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.93 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 107%. The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 3.17 billion yuan, up 4.7% year-on-year, and a net profit of 520 million yuan, up 35% year-on-year [3][4][7]. - The company’s aeronautical revenue increased by 27% year-on-year, driven by a 29% increase in passenger throughput and a 15% increase in aircraft movements [4]. Revenue Drivers - The recovery of international passenger traffic to over 80% of 2019 levels has led to an increase in unit revenue, with international passenger traffic at 84% of 2019 levels [4]. - Duty-free revenue declined by 32% year-on-year due to a new agreement that shifted from a commission-based model to a guaranteed rent model, impacting profitability [5]. Future Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 2.15 billion yuan, 2.56 billion yuan, and 2.93 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 37, 31, and 27 [6][7]. - The report anticipates that the impact of duty-free revenue pressures will gradually diminish as international passenger volumes recover and consumer spending rebounds [5].