Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-05-05 06:44Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry compared to the overall market performance [4]. Core Insights - In April 2025, the sales data from real estate companies showed a significant decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 23.5% in monthly sales and a cumulative decrease of 16.1% for the first four months of the year [4]. - The report highlights a structural differentiation in the market, with first and second-tier cities performing better than third and fourth-tier cities, suggesting a "structurally strong + weak overall" market outlook [4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of government policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market, including measures to enhance housing supply and optimize land storage [4]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In April 2025, the top three companies by sales were Poly Developments (24.6 billion), China Overseas (20.1 billion), and China Resources (17.3 billion), with the threshold for the top three dropping from 21.3 billion in the previous year to 17.3 billion [2][4]. - The cumulative sales for the first four months of 2025 reached 756.3 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 16.1% [4]. Company Performance - Poly Developments reported a sales amount of 87.6 billion (YOY -9%), while China Resources and China Overseas reported 68.5 billion (YOY -5%) and 66.5 billion (YOY -19%) respectively for the first four months of 2025 [4]. - Notable performers in April included China Fortune Land Development (+73% YOY) and Sunshine City (+69% YOY), indicating that some companies are outperforming the industry average [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality real estate companies in core cities, including China Overseas, Poly Developments, and China Resources, as well as second-hand housing intermediaries like Beike-W and I Love My Home [4]. - It also suggests looking into undervalued companies such as New Town Holdings and Longfor Group, and highlights the potential of property management firms like China Resources and Poly Property [4].