房地产行业周度观点更新：年中或再迎交易窗口-20250505

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the real estate industry [13]. Core Insights - The real estate sector is currently at a bottom range, with a significant downward trend in volume and price having likely passed. The industry is expected to see a policy trading window around mid-year, despite short-term policies not meeting market expectations [2][11]. - The adjustment phase of the industry has entered its second half, with the fastest decline in volume and price likely over. The core areas and quality properties present structural highlights [7][11]. - Continuous easing of industrial policies is anticipated, although the stabilization of the market remains fragile. The potential for further policy easing exists, including interest rate cuts and tax incentives [2][11]. Market Performance - The Yangtze River Real Estate Index decreased by 2.80% this week, with a year-to-date decline of 6.43%. The sector ranks low in performance relative to the broader market [8][16]. - In April, new home registrations in sample cities turned negative year-on-year, while second-hand home sales saw a decrease in growth rate [10][19]. Policy Developments - Recent policies include tax deductions for second-home loans transitioning to first-home loans, and various local governments have introduced new real estate measures to stimulate the market [9][18]. - Notable local policies include the introduction of housing vouchers in Nanjing and changes to housing fund regulations in Shanghai, aimed at increasing accessibility for non-residents [9][18]. Sales Data - In April, the new home transaction area in 37 cities saw a year-on-year decline of 7.5%, while second-hand homes experienced a year-on-year increase of 19.3% [10][19]. - The cumulative year-to-date transaction area for new homes in 37 cities is up by 0.9%, while second-hand homes have increased by 28.7% [10][19].