周度经济观察：内需维持稳定，外需压力初现-20250505

Group 1: Economic Indicators - April PMI for manufacturing dropped to 49, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points, marking the first contraction since the "926" policy[4] - April non-farm payrolls in the U.S. increased by 177,000, a significant drop of 51,000 from the previous month[14] - Q1 2025 GDP growth rate was -0.3%, a decline of 2.7 percentage points from Q4 2024, the lowest in nearly four years[10] Group 2: Consumer Behavior - During the May Day holiday, cross-regional mobility reached 33.27 million people, a year-on-year increase of 6.2%[7] - Consumer spending is recovering steadily, with travel and tourism showing significant growth, particularly in scenic areas where visitor numbers increased by around 20%[7] - The correlation between consumer spending and the "old-for-new" policy is low, indicating a rise in spontaneous consumption tendencies[9] Group 3: Trade and Tariff Impact - The U.S. tariff policy has led to a noticeable decline in exports, with new export orders and backlogs decreasing significantly[4] - The cancellation of the tariff exemption for goods valued at $800 will significantly impact small businesses and cross-border e-commerce[5] - The increase in import rates due to tariff policies has contributed to a surge in inventory levels, negatively affecting economic performance[12]