外汇期货周度报告：非农好于预期，美元短期反弹-20250505

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "oscillating" [5] 2. Core Views of the Report - The market risk appetite slightly increased this week, with most stock markets rising, most bond yields falling, and the US dollar index rebounding. The non - US currencies showed a mixed performance. The geopolitical risks eased to some extent, but the tariff issue still affected market sentiment and economic data [1][2]. - The April non - farm payrolls data was better than expected, and the unemployment rate remained stable. The wage growth slowed down, reducing the upward pressure on core inflation. The employment market has not deteriorated, supporting the Fed to stay on hold in the upcoming May interest - rate meeting [2]. - Due to the impact of tariffs, the US economic growth slowed down in the first quarter, with GDP declining quarter - on - quarter. Tariffs increased the stagflation pressure on the economy, and corporate profit expectations were generally lowered [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Global Market Overview This Week - Market risk appetite slightly increased. Most stock markets rose, and most bond yields declined. The US bond yield dropped to 4.23%. The US dollar index rose 0.24% to 99.4, non - US currencies showed mixed performance, the gold price fell 0.2% to $3319 per ounce, the VIX index dropped to 24.8, the spot commodity index rose, and Brent crude oil fell 0.9% to $67.5 per barrel [9] 3.2 Market Trading Logic and Asset Performance 3.2.1 Stock Market - Global stock markets mostly rose. Developed - market stocks generally increased, with the S&P 500 rising 2.92%. Emerging - market stocks also mostly climbed, but the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.49% before the holiday. The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 2.38%, and the Nikkei 225 Index rose 3.15% [10][11] - Tariff negotiations continued to affect market sentiment. The market's expectation of China - US negotiations increased, and Trump admitted that tariffs dragged down the US economy, which marginally eased market concerns about tariffs and boosted risk appetite [11] 3.2.2 Bond Market - Bond yields of most countries globally rebounded. The 10 - year US bond yield rose to 4.31%, most euro - zone countries' yields increased, and most emerging - market bond yields declined [14][15] - The rebound of the US bond yield was due to the short - term easing of geopolitical risks, the better - than - expected April non - farm payrolls report, and the reduced market expectation of Fed rate cuts [17] - The 10 - year Chinese government bond yield slightly dropped to 1.63%. The central bank injected liquidity, and the market funds were abundant. The weak economic data and the market's expectation of trade negotiations led to a volatile bond market [20] 3.2.3 Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index rose 0.56% to 100, and non - US currencies showed a mixed performance. Commodity and emerging - market exchange rates strengthened. The offshore RMB rose 1.04%, the euro fell 0.6%, the pound fell 0.32%, the yen fell 0.9%, the Swiss franc rose 0.17%, and the Korean won, Indian rupee, and Malaysian ringgit rose more than 2%. The Australian dollar, Canadian dollar, Thai baht, South African rand, and Brazilian real also ended up [28] 3.2.4 Commodity Market - Spot gold fell 2.4% to $3240 per ounce. The domestic funds took profits before the holiday, and the market expected a marginal improvement in China - US trade negotiations, so the international gold price still had room for short - term correction [32] - Brent crude oil tumbled 9% to $61.4 per barrel. Saudi Arabia's decision to increase production and the lackluster demand put pressure on oil prices, and the overall commodities market was weak [32] 3.3 Hot - Spot Tracking - The April non - farm payrolls data was better than expected, with new employment exceeding 170,000. The wage growth was slightly lower than expected at 3.8% year - on - year. The Fed was expected to remain cautious and the possibility of a short - term rate cut decreased significantly [34] - The US - Ukraine mineral agreement indicated that the Russia - Ukraine conflict would continue in the short term. Saudi Arabia's oil production increase had political motives, and the Fed was not expected to cut rates in the short term [34] - The Japan - US trade negotiations were unproductive. Although Japan threatened to use US Treasury bonds as a weapon, it was still expected to meet US demands [35] 3.4 Next Week's Important Events - Monday: US April ISM non - manufacturing PMI; China, Japan, South Korea, and the UK are on holiday [36] - Tuesday: China April Caixin services PMI; Japan and South Korea are on holiday [36] - Wednesday: China April foreign exchange reserves and gold reserves; Euro - zone April retail sales [36] - Thursday: Fed and Bank of England interest - rate meeting decisions; US weekly initial jobless claims and April New York Fed inflation expectations [36] - Friday: China April import and export data [36]