Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway (SH:601816) Changjiang Securities·2025-05-05 08:43Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [5]. Core Views - The report indicates that the growth of Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway is slowing down, while the Beijing-Fuzhou line is on the verge of turning profitable. The company is expected to remain in a profit ramp-up period due to improved capacity utilization and a stable competitive landscape [2][4]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved an operating revenue of 42.157 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 12.768 billion yuan, up 10.6% year-on-year. For Q1 2025, the operating revenue was 10.223 billion yuan, a 1.2% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 2.964 billion yuan, remaining stable compared to the previous year [4][7]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 5.783 billion yuan for the year 2024, maintaining a dividend payout ratio of 50% [4][7]. Operational Insights - The passenger volume for the main line of Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, with limited growth potential. However, cross-line train mileage increased by 11.4% year-on-year, indicating a shift in operational focus [7][8]. - The average ticket price for main line passengers increased by 0.8% year-on-year, while cross-line train prices decreased by 3.8% year-on-year, highlighting the need to monitor pricing adjustments for cross-line services [7][8]. Cost and Profitability Analysis - The company's operating costs increased by 0.6% year-on-year to 22.179 billion yuan, with depreciation costs remaining rigid. The report notes that the company's profit margins are under pressure due to rising costs outpacing revenue growth [7][8]. - The report forecasts net profits for 2025 to 2027 at 13.6 billion, 15.1 billion, and 16.9 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 21, 19, and 17 times [7][8].