Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the metals and new materials industry, indicating a "Buy" recommendation for key sectors such as gold and copper [3][4]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the recent pullback in gold prices does not alter the long-term upward trend, supported by ongoing demand and supply dynamics in the copper and aluminum markets [3][4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring macroeconomic indicators, such as U.S. employment data and central bank policies, which influence commodity prices [4][21]. Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.49%, while the Shenzhen Component decreased by 0.17%. The non-ferrous metals index underperformed, dropping 0.81% [5][4]. - Precious metals saw a decline, with gold prices down 2.49% and silver down 2.54% week-on-week [4][14]. - Year-to-date performance shows precious metals up 31.29%, while aluminum and energy metals have seen slight declines [9][4]. Price Changes - Industrial metals experienced varied price changes, with copper down 0.09%, aluminum up 0.14%, and zinc down 1.47% [14][4]. - Lithium prices have decreased, with battery-grade lithium carbonate down 2.19% [17][4]. Key Company Valuations - Notable companies in the sector include Zijin Mining, with a projected PE ratio of 22 for 2023, and China Aluminum, with a PE ratio of 15 [18][19]. - The report suggests focusing on companies with stable earnings and dividend attributes, such as Baosteel and Shandong Steel [4][19]. Supply and Demand Analysis - Copper demand remains stable, with operating rates for copper rods at 79.9%. However, the supply side shows a decrease in social inventory by 5.2% [29][4]. - Aluminum production is constrained by lower operating rates in downstream processing, with a current operating rate of 61.65% [45][4]. Growth Cycle Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in sectors with stable supply-demand dynamics, particularly in new energy manufacturing [4][4].
金属、新材料行业周报：金价回调不改长期趋势，铜铝去库支撑价格-20250505
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-05-05 09:14