SINOLINK SECURITIES·2025-05-05 08:23Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the home furnishing sector, driven by domestic consumption stimulus and the gradual recovery of retail channels [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the domestic consumption stimulus is beginning to show effects, with a notable recovery in retail channels, while export conditions are experiencing marginal declines [1][3]. - The performance of leading companies in the home furnishing sector is improving, particularly in the context of national subsidies and strategic adjustments [1][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Home Furnishing - Domestic sales show signs of recovery with a year-on-year revenue change of -12.44% in Q4 2024 and +1.75% in Q1 2025, while net profit for the same periods changed from -54.11% to +7.07% [13]. - Export performance for the furniture sector saw a cumulative year-on-year increase of +5.8% for 2024 but a decline of -8.0% in Q1 2025, indicating a downward trend in export conditions [13]. - The report anticipates that the domestic market will continue to recover in the short term due to national subsidy policies, while the export market may face ongoing pressures [13]. 1.1 Domestic - Custom Home Furnishing - Retail channels are showing marginal improvements, while bulk channels remain under pressure, with leading companies like Oppein and Sophia experiencing reduced revenue declines in Q1 2025 compared to previous quarters [20]. - The profitability of leading companies is improving, with a focus on cost control and product development, while second and third-tier brands may struggle to maintain performance [26]. - Prepayment and cash flow indicators show improvements for some leading companies, suggesting a gradual recovery in demand [38]. 1.2 Domestic - Soft Home Furnishing - The soft home furnishing sector is under pressure due to real estate downturns and changing consumer spending patterns, but companies like Kuka and Mengbaihe are showing signs of recovery [39]. - Profit margins are improving in Q1 2025 compared to 2024, with notable changes in gross and net profit margins across leading companies [44]. - Prepayment figures for soft home furnishing companies are showing positive growth, indicating a recovery in domestic demand [46]. 1.3 Export Home Furnishing - The overall export climate is declining, with a significant drop in cumulative export value in Q1 2025, reflecting challenges in the international market [51][53]. - Despite the overall decline, leading companies are still managing to perform well, showcasing resilience and strategic advantages [51].