Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lithium carbonate industry is "Oscillating" [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Before the May Day holiday, lithium salt prices hit new lows. The core trading logic is to test the effectiveness of cost support from the resource end under the premise of weak demand. In the medium to long term, cost support may decline further due to companies' cost - reduction efforts, but short - term trading rhythms need attention. Salt plants' planned maintenance and production cuts, and the narrowing of the carbon - hydrogen price difference are factors to watch. It is not recommended to continue short - selling at the current point, and investors should wait patiently for opportunities to short on rebounds [2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Disk Position Increase Tests Cost Support, Lithium Prices Hit New Lows Before the Holiday - Before the holiday (April 28 - 30), lithium salt prices dropped. LC2505 and LC2507 contract closing prices decreased by 3.9% and 3.3% respectively. SMM battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate spot average prices dropped by 2.7%. The closing price of the Liyang Zhonglian Gold lithium carbonate near - month contract decreased by 2.7%. Weekly lithium hydroxide prices slightly declined, and the price premium of battery - grade lithium hydroxide over battery - grade lithium carbonate significantly narrowed [11] 2. Weekly Industry News Review - Premier African Minerals raised over £1.5 million to support the Zulu lithium - tantalum project. The funds will be used for the secondary flotation plant and creditor affairs [15] - Australia's IGO lowered its capital expenditure forecast for the Greenbushes lithium mine in Western Australia in the 2025 fiscal year, from the previous range of $850 - 950 million to about $780 million [15] - Sichuan Tianfu Lithium Industry Co., Ltd. was established with a registered capital of 500 million yuan [16] - Piedmont Lithium's production and sales in the first quarter of 2025 decreased compared to the previous quarter. The lithium spodumene concentrate production at its NAL project was 43,261 dry tons, a 15% decrease, and sales were about 27,000 dry tons, a 59% decrease [16] 3. Monitoring of Key High - Frequency Data in the Industry Chain 3.1 Resource End: Spot Quotes of Lithium Concentrate Continue to Decline - The spot average price of lithium concentrate decreased, with the lithium spodumene concentrate spot average price (6%, CIF China) dropping from $793/ton to $773/ton, a 2.5% decrease [12] 3.2 Lithium Salts: The Main Contract Approaches the 70,000 - yuan Mark Again - Battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate spot average prices decreased by 2.7%. The closing prices of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate futures near - month and main contracts decreased by 3.9% and 3.3% respectively [12] 3.3 Downstream Intermediate Products: Quotes Decline - The spot average prices of downstream materials such as lithium iron phosphate and cobalt - acid lithium decreased to varying degrees [12] 3.4 Terminal: China's New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales Increased Significantly Year - on - Year in March - China's new energy vehicle production and sales in March showed high - year - on - year growth, and the penetration rate also increased [41]
盘面增仓测试成本支撑,节前锂价再创新低
Dong Zheng Qi Huo·2025-05-05 11:44