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计算机行业2025年中期投资策略:AI精彩纷呈,信创替代加速
KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-05-05 11:43

Group 1 - The computer index has outperformed the CSI 300 index since the beginning of the year, with a rise of 2.35% compared to a decline of 4.18% for the CSI 300 index as of April 30, 2025, ranking sixth among all primary industries [4][10]. - The fund holding ratio for the computer industry stocks was 3.82% at the end of Q1 2025, a decrease of 0.16 percentage points from the previous quarter, indicating a historical low [4][27]. Group 2 - Two core trends are emphasized: the comprehensive prosperity of AI and the robust development of domestic innovation [5]. - The AI sector is entering a prosperous era, with significant advancements in models, computing power, and applications, highlighted by the rapid evolution of OpenAI's models and the emergence of domestic models like Deepseek [5][35]. - The "Great Innovation" trend indicates that domestic software and hardware are gradually becoming more user-friendly, with a potential acceleration in replacement rhythms due to changes in the global trade environment and national encouragement for technological self-reliance [5]. Group 3 - Investment recommendations include companies benefiting from AI applications such as Kingsoft Office, Dingjie Zhizhi, and Keda Xunfei, among others, while computing power recommendations include Haiguang Information and Sugon Information [6]. - For the "Great Innovation" trend, recommended companies include Dameng Data, Taiji Co., and China Software International, with beneficiaries like China Great Wall and Tsinghua Unigroup [6]. Group 4 - The AI model sector is rapidly evolving, with OpenAI's models like GPT-4 and its successors leading the way, while domestic companies are also making significant strides in AI model development [39][53]. - The demand for AI computing power is surging, with major cloud service providers like Microsoft, Google, AWS, and Meta showing strong capital expenditure growth, indicating robust market demand for AI capabilities [67][72]. - NVIDIA's data center business has experienced sustained high growth, driven by increasing market demand for AI and high-performance computing [74].