Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-05-05 11:47Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the retail and service sectors, highlighting the potential for growth driven by government policies aimed at boosting consumption [4][7]. Core Insights - The Politburo meeting emphasized the importance of stabilizing employment and promoting consumption, indicating a strategic focus on enhancing domestic demand and supporting the service sector [4][7]. - The report notes a significant increase in service retail sales, with a year-on-year growth of 5.0% in Q1 2025, surpassing the growth rate of goods retail sales [8]. - The introduction of optimized tax refund policies for outbound tourists is expected to enhance the attractiveness of inbound consumption, further stimulating the retail market [14][15]. - Various regions have launched consumption promotion activities, including the distribution of consumption vouchers, which have shown positive results in driving sales during the May Day holiday [16][17]. Summary by Sections Economic Policy and Consumption Promotion - The Politburo meeting proposed a series of policies to expand domestic demand and promote consumption, focusing on stabilizing employment and enhancing service consumption [4][7]. - The report highlights the expected positive impact of these policies on sectors such as tourism, hospitality, and retail, with a particular emphasis on the growth of service consumption [8][9]. Market Performance - During the period from April 28 to May 2, 2025, the social service index decreased by 2.63%, while the retail index fell by 1.72%, indicating a challenging market environment [19]. - The report provides a detailed overview of stock performance within the retail sector, noting significant gains for companies like Maoye Commercial and Xinhua Jin, while others like Tongcheng Holdings and Bubugao faced declines [22][29]. Company Updates - Notable companies in the retail sector, such as Yonghui Supermarket and Dazhong shares, are undergoing transformations to enhance profitability and adapt to changing consumer preferences [4][32]. - The report includes financial performance updates for key companies, indicating varied results across the sector, with some companies experiencing revenue growth while others faced declines [32][34]. Valuation Insights - The report presents valuation metrics for key companies in the retail and service sectors, indicating a weighted average PE ratio for e-commerce companies at 13 for 2025E, suggesting a favorable investment environment [40][41].