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A股策略周报:暗藏的变化
Minsheng Securities·2025-05-05 12:23

Group 1: Asset Performance Post Tariff Implementation - Since the implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" on April 2, 2025, global risk assets have shown a "V"-shaped recovery, with U.S. and European stock markets outperforming Chinese equity assets and demand-side commodities[1] - As of May 2, 2025, U.S. stock indices (e.g., NASDAQ, S&P 500) have recovered above their April 2 closing prices, while Chinese assets (e.g., Hang Seng Index, CSI 800) and commodities like copper and oil remain below their April 2 levels[1] - The disparity in asset performance is attributed to different driving factors and recovery rhythms, with demand-related commodities reflecting weaker demand expectations[1] Group 2: U.S. Economic Outlook - Recent positive non-farm payroll data has alleviated immediate recession concerns, but potential market volatility remains due to ongoing trade negotiations and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions[2] - The U.S. economy's first-quarter GDP growth was reported at -0.30%, slightly below expectations, while April's ADP employment growth was only 62,000, compared to the expected 115,000[2] - Structural issues in the U.S. labor market show that manufacturing sector job growth has been negative since October 2023, indicating a shift towards service-oriented job creation[2] Group 3: Domestic Economic Adjustments - The April PMI data indicates that the impact of tariffs on China's exports is becoming evident, with new export orders declining significantly[3] - Recent trade negotiations between China and the U.S. have begun to show signs of engagement, suggesting that policy responses may become clearer as talks progress[3] - The offshore RMB appreciated significantly on May 2, 2025, indicating a positive correlation between Chinese equity assets and the currency, suggesting a potential market revaluation[3] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Chinese assets are considered to have better value compared to other markets, with a focus on sectors benefiting from domestic demand, such as consumer goods and services[4] - The report recommends investing in resource products (copper, aluminum, gold) and capital goods (engineering machinery, steel) as global economic conditions evolve[4] - Financial sectors with low valuations (banks, insurance) are also highlighted as potential safe havens against external shocks[4]