从“五一”期间的新增信息推演，债市震荡如何破局

Group 1 - The report indicates that the bond market is expected to experience short-term fluctuations, with a key focus on broad interest rate cuts as a potential solution, particularly around the mid to late May period when the central bank may conduct buyout reverse repos [1][12]. - Three major pieces of new information during the May Day holiday are highlighted: 1) Changes in US-China tariff statements leading to a surge in overseas risk assets, 2) A strong appreciation of the RMB returning to pre-tariff levels, and 3) Positive signals from the US economy, with non-farm payroll data exceeding expectations [4][7][9]. - The report suggests that the key to breaking the current deadlock in the bond market lies not in economic fundamentals but in the timing and extent of broad monetary easing, with expectations for interest rate cuts to be observed in late May [11][12]. Group 2 - The bond market's performance is influenced by the recent positive economic signals, including a significant increase in non-farm employment numbers, which may temper expectations for interest rate cuts [9][11]. - The report recommends maintaining a strategy focused on long-term bonds, particularly 7-year or 20-year bonds, while also considering short-term non-option credit bonds to enhance yields [11][12]. - The report notes that the average net interest margin of major banks has decreased to 1.34%, indicating pressure on banks to lower funding costs, which may lead to further interest rate cuts [12][14]. Group 3 - The report highlights that the bond market is currently experiencing a divergence in yield spreads, with long-term local government bonds showing significant spread potential compared to historical levels [28][31]. - It also points out that credit spreads are exhibiting a mixed trend, with some varieties showing contraction while others remain at historically high levels [31][32]. - The overall market sentiment is expected to remain positive, driven by the anticipated broad monetary easing and stabilization of the RMB exchange rate, which should mitigate pressures on capital outflows [12][20].