Changjiang Securities·2025-05-05 13:15Investment Rating - The investment rating for Qingdao Beer is "Buy" and is maintained [6] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 10.446 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 2.91%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.71 billion yuan, up 7.08% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 1.603 billion yuan, an increase of 5.95% year-on-year [2][4] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - The sales volume for Q1 2025 was 2.261 million kiloliters, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.5%. The sales volume of the main brand increased by 4.1% year-on-year, with the main brand's share rising by 0.3 percentage points to 60.8%. The average price per ton decreased by 0.6% year-on-year [9] Cost and Profitability - The cost per ton decreased by 2.6% year-on-year due to falling raw material prices. The gross margin improved by 1.2 percentage points to 41.6%. The expense ratio decreased by 0.13 percentage points to 14.88%, with sales and management expense ratios declining by 0.29 and 0.2 percentage points, respectively. The net profit margin increased by 0.64 percentage points to 16.37% [9] Management and Future Outlook - The new management team is effectively laying the groundwork for the year, and the company's operations are expected to improve steadily. With the upcoming peak season for beer sales and a low base effect, the company is anticipated to continue its operational improvement. The company is also enhancing brand promotion both online and offline, and expanding its new retail business, which is expected to generate new channel growth [9] Earnings Forecast - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 3.68, 4.07, and 4.49 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 20X, 18X, and 17X [9]