KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-05-05 14:11Group 1 - The supply-demand relationship has changed, leading to a prolonged decline in both volume and price in the current real estate cycle. The central government has officially entered a destocking cycle as of July 2023, with significant policy support and a longer duration of declining sales data compared to previous cycles [2][7][26] - The concept of "good houses" has emerged, shifting the focus from mere availability to quality. The government has emphasized increasing the supply of quality housing, with new standards set to enhance residential construction requirements [2][31][35] Group 2 - The real estate market is transitioning from "having" to "quality," with increasing demand for improved housing conditions. Data from the 2020 census shows an average of 3.18 rooms per household and 37.76 square meters per person, indicating progress in housing quality [3][45] - The aging of existing housing stock, primarily built between 1990 and 2014, is expected to drive ongoing replacement and upgrading demand as homeowners seek better living conditions [3][46] Group 3 - Investment recommendations suggest focusing on companies with strong credit ratings that can cater to improving customer needs, such as Greentown China, China Merchants Shekou, and China Overseas Development. Additionally, firms benefiting from both residential and commercial real estate recovery are highlighted [4][60][61]