洽洽食品（002557）：24年顺利收官，Q1成本拖累盈利承压

Investment Rating - The report adjusts the investment rating for the company to "Accumulate" from a previous rating due to the impact of rising raw material costs and a challenging operating environment in Q1 2025 [1][3]. Core Views - The company experienced a significant decline in revenue and net profit in Q1 2025, with year-on-year changes of -13.8% in revenue and -67.9% in net profit, primarily due to the timing of the Spring Festival and a high base effect from the previous year [1][6]. - The company is focusing on expanding new channels for sunflower seeds and nuts, as well as promoting products in overseas markets, with expectations for improved profit margins in the future [1][6]. - The report revises the EPS forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 1.41 and 1.59 yuan, respectively, reflecting the anticipated challenges in profitability [1][7]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 7.131 billion yuan, with a net profit of 849 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 4.8% and 6% respectively [6][14]. - The gross margin for 2024 was reported at 28.8%, an increase of 2.0 percentage points year-on-year, benefiting from cost reductions in sunflower seeds [6][14]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported a gross margin of 19.5%, down 11.0 percentage points year-on-year, indicating pressure on profitability due to increased procurement costs [1][6]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company forecasts total revenue growth of 5% for 2025 and 2026, with expected revenues of 7.485 billion and 7.859 billion yuan respectively [7][14]. - The net profit for 2025 is projected to decline to 717 million yuan, a decrease of 16% compared to 2024, before recovering to 804 million yuan in 2026 [7][14]. - The report highlights a decrease in EPS for 2025 to 1.41 yuan, with a slight recovery to 1.59 yuan in 2026 [1][7]. Market Position and Shareholder Information - The company has a total market capitalization of 11.7 billion yuan, with a circulating market value also at 11.7 billion yuan [3]. - The major shareholder, Hefei Huatai Group Co., Ltd., holds a 42.57% stake in the company [3].