关注铅锌内外正套，多晶硅月间正套机会

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For zinc, maintain the main judgment of shorting on rallies in the medium - term. In May, demand may weaken more than supply, and low inventory is expected to gradually ease. Consider adding options for protection around May Day and look for short - selling opportunities after observing inventory changes [8][9][11]. - For lead, in May, the fundamentals may show a situation of weak supply and demand. Consider shorting on rallies in the medium - term, but be cautious when opening short positions due to limited price decline space [25][26]. - For nickel, wait for the low - buying opportunity of ni2507. Nickel iron has the logic of rebound and valuation repair, and pay attention to the internal - external reverse arbitrage opportunity when the import loss is around 5000 [38][42]. - For polysilicon, pay attention to the low - buying opportunities of PS2506/PS2507 and the positive arbitrage opportunities after the correction of PS2506 - PS2507 and PS2507 - 2508 [54][55]. Summary by Directory 1. Zinc - Previous Strategy Review: The short - selling strategy on rallies for the main contract of Shanghai zinc has achieved about a 6% decline since April 1st. The previous inter - period positive arbitrage strategy had good returns but is facing short - term pressure [8]. - Arbitrage Strategy Recommendation: Overseas zinc concentrate production in Q2 2025 is expected to increase significantly. Domestic TC has room to rise in the first half of the year. In May, the zinc ingot output may decline slightly, and the impact on supply is not significant. Downstream demand is weak, and the inventory inflection point is expected to appear in mid - May [9][10][11]. - Operation Suggestion: Unilateral: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies in the medium - term. Inter - period arbitrage: Wait and see. Cross - market arbitrage: Pay attention to internal - external positive arbitrage opportunities [13]. - Key Indicator Tracking: LME zinc seasonal inventory, domestic seven - region zinc ingot inventory, smelter comprehensive income considering some by - products, and raw material inventory of three primary downstream industries [13][15][17][19]. 2. Lead - Previous Strategy Review: The short - selling strategy on rallies for lead in the quarterly report was affected by the macro - impact in April. The previous inter - period positive arbitrage strategy was profitable, but the short - term pressure is increasing [22]. - Arbitrage Strategy Recommendation: In May, the fundamentals may be weak in both supply and demand. The secondary smelter may recover after raw material replenishment, while domestic demand has peaked and exports are under pressure. Pay attention to the inflow of imported lead [23][24][25]. - Operation Suggestion: Unilateral: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies in the medium - term. Inter - period arbitrage: Wait and see. Cross - market arbitrage: Pay attention to high - level internal - external positive arbitrage opportunities [27]. - Key Indicator Tracking: Scrap battery price and Shanghai lead main contract, LME lead seasonal inventory, five - region lead ingot seasonal social inventory, and lead concentrate and refined lead import profit and loss [28][33][32][34]. 3. Nickel & Stainless Steel - Previous Strategy Review: After the equal - tariff was implemented in April, the nickel price was mainly guided by the macro - aspect. The previous internal - external positive arbitrage strategy was profitable [37]. - Arbitrage Strategy Recommendation: The nickel ore supply in Indonesia is tight, and the nickel iron price is expected to rebound. The NPI may be converted to high - grade matte, and the NPI supply will decrease. The demand for stainless steel and new energy is weak [38][39]. - Operation Suggestion: Unilateral: Wait and see in the short - term and look for low - buying opportunities of ni2507. Inter - period arbitrage: Wait and see. Cross - market arbitrage: Pay attention to internal - external reverse arbitrage opportunities when the import loss is around 5000 [42]. - Key Indicator Tracking: Nickel internal - external Shanghai - London price ratio change, nickel theoretical import profit and loss change, SHFE nickel inventory change, and LME nickel inventory and cancelled warrant change [43][47][45][48]. 4. Polysilicon - Previous Strategy Review: The previous PS2506 - PS2511 positive arbitrage strategy performed well [50]. - Arbitrage Strategy Recommendation: In May, the domestic polysilicon production is expected to decline to 98,000 tons, and the silicon wafer production is expected to decline to 54GW. The polysilicon inventory will continue to decline by about 10,000 tons. The spot price is expected to be flat month - on - month. Pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunities after the correction of PS2506 - PS2507 and PS2507 - 2508 [51][52][54]. - Operation Suggestion: Unilateral: Pay attention to low - buying opportunities of PS2506/PS2507. Inter - period arbitrage: Pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunities of PS2506 - PS2507/PS2507 - 2508 [55]. - Key Indicator Tracking: China's polysilicon weekly inventory, China's silicon wafer weekly inventory, China's battery cell export factory weekly inventory, and China's photovoltaic module inventory [57][59].