固定收益点评：震荡行情中，何处破局？

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the bond market may maintain a volatile state, but considering the high necessity of loose monetary policy, the general trend of interest rate decline is relatively certain, and it is recommended to allocate when the price is high [4]. - Currently, policies remain firm, focusing on "stabilizing employment," and are expected to have limited impact on the bond market. In terms of the fundamentals, it is expected that it will be difficult to reach an agreement in the Sino - US tariff negotiations in the short term, and the economy is expected to face pressure in the second quarter under the tariff impact. However, the previous rapid decline in interest rates has already priced in part of the weakening fundamentals [4]. 3. Summary by Related Contents 3.1 Reasons for the Current Bond Market Volatility - Under the external tariff shock, the bond market reacted quickly, pricing in the expectation of weakening fundamentals and loose monetary policy. From April 2 to April 7, the 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate dropped 15.7BP in two trading days, approaching the previous low in early January 2025, and further decline was restricted [11]. - From the perspective of bank asset comparison, the current bond market position implies a rate cut of about 20BP. Since the beginning of the year, the expectation of a rate cut has repeatedly failed to materialize. The timing of the rate cut is still uncertain, and the rhythm of loose monetary policy is unclear, which also hinders the decline of interest rates [11]. 3.2 Review of Bond Market Volatility since 2022 - February - May 2022: The bond market was in a dilemma between the expectations of broad credit and broad money. Fiscal policy efforts were limited and liquidity was loose, which pushed interest rates to break through downward [4][12]. - February - March 2023: The game between post - epidemic economic recovery and weak policy expectations led to bond market volatility. After April, the weakening of fundamental recovery momentum drove interest rates down [4][13]. - May - mid - July 2024: Central bank regulatory pressure emerged, causing interest rate fluctuations, which were later broken by the rate cut at the end of July [4][15]. - January - mid - February 2025: After the market over - anticipated the rate cut, there was a volatile situation, which was adjusted with the correction of the broad - money expectation [4][19]. 3.3 Key Points to Break the Bond Market Stalemate - Broad - money expectation: When the bond market is in a volatile state, the attitude of monetary policy is often unclear. As the orientation of monetary policy becomes clear, interest rates will break through significantly. Trigger points include unexpected reserve requirement ratio cuts, changes in the central bank's public statements, and changes in central bank liquidity injection and money - market interest rates [24]. - Fiscal policy intensity: Fiscal policy is an important variable affecting the bond market, especially when the economy is weak. When fiscal intensity exceeds expectations, it will drive interest rates up, and vice versa [24]. - Fundamental operation: Although the economy is continuous and difficult to change significantly in the short term, when affected by internal and external shocks, the direction of fundamental operation may change, breaking the bond market's volatile stalemate [24].