Orient Securities·2025-05-05 15:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Postal Savings Bank with a target price of 7.17 CNY per share, reflecting a 20% valuation premium compared to comparable companies [3][7]. Core Views - The report highlights an optimization in the cost-to-income ratio and a rapid growth in corporate business, with a slight decline in revenue growth but a notable increase in non-interest income [2][11]. - The bank's total assets and loan growth remain stable, with corporate loans showing a significant increase, indicating a balanced asset-liability structure [11]. - Asset quality is generally stable, although there is a slight increase in non-performing loans and a decrease in the provision coverage ratio, suggesting ongoing challenges in the retail sector [11]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2023A, the bank's operating income is projected at 342,507 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 2.3%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 86,270 million CNY, also reflecting a 1.2% increase [5][12]. - The forecast for net profit growth for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is 0.2%, 1.3%, and 1.7%, respectively, with corresponding BVPS of 8.96, 9.57, and 10.18 CNY [3][5]. - The bank's cost-to-income ratio is expected to improve, with a forecast of 62.80% for 2025E [12]. Key Financial Ratios - The report indicates a projected P/E ratio of 6.60 for 2025 and a P/B ratio of 0.60 for the same year, suggesting a favorable valuation compared to historical averages [5][12]. - The return on average assets (ROAA) is expected to decline slightly to 0.49% by 2027, while the return on average equity (ROAE) is projected to decrease to 9.35% [12]. Market Performance - The stock has shown a 1.13% increase over the past week and a 22.17% increase over the past year, indicating positive market sentiment [8].