两轮贸易摩擦，信用债投资复盘与展望

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From August 2017 to January 2020, the credit bond market evolved in four stages under the intertwined influence of Sino - US trade frictions and policy hedging, presenting a pattern of "strengthened safe - haven properties of interest - rate bonds and re - structured risk pricing of credit bonds" [3][21]. - The market logic gradually returned to fundamental verification in the later stage, with external shocks having a diminishing marginal impact. Policy hedging effectiveness, credit repair rhythm, and cross - border capital flows became key variables affecting the market trend [12]. - After the implementation of the 54% tariff policy on April 2, 2025, the core logic of the credit bond market shifted to "safe - haven trading + policy hedging". Short - term high - grade varieties are favored, and in the short - term, safe - haven sentiment will dominate the market. In the medium - term, attention should be paid to economic data and the possible impact of the valuation repair of Chinese dollar - denominated bonds [100][105]. 3. Summary by Directory First Stage: Anticipation Disturbance Period (August 2017 - June 2018) - Interest Rate Curve Differentiation and Credit Risk Pricing Re - structuring: The bond market was in a "loose money, tight credit" policy combination. The short - end of the interest - rate bond market benefited from the targeted RRR cut in April 2018, while the long - end was suppressed by factors such as rising international oil prices, Fed rate hikes, and regulatory tightening. Private enterprise default amounts increased, and investors' behaviors diverged. The inability to transform "loose money" into "loose credit" intensified the structural contradictions in the credit bond market [22][24][25]. - Credit Bond Financing Fluctuations due to Trade Friction Evolution: Credit bond financing fluctuated. It declined initially due to trade friction concerns and financial risk prevention policies, then rebounded briefly in early 2018 due to liquidity release policies, and finally decreased again after the addition of tariffs and the implementation of the asset management new rules [29][30]. - Overall Rise in Credit Bond Yields and Widening of Credit Spreads: Credit bond yields rose overall, and credit spreads widened. Market concerns about credit risks spread from local industries to the whole market, especially in export - oriented industries. Although the targeted RRR cut in April 2018 curbed risk spread, private enterprise default events increased, and the pricing logic of the credit bond market became more complex [36][37]. - Initial Appearance of Credit Bond Default Pressure with Wide Industry Distribution: Credit bond defaults and extensions increased slightly. Defaults were no longer concentrated in traditional over - capacity industries but spread to more sectors. Policy uncertainties affected corporate financing efficiency and solvency [42][43]. Second Stage: Policy Hedging Period (July - November 2018) - Differentiated Efficiency of Interest - Credit Transmission under Policy Hedging: As Sino - US trade frictions escalated, domestic policies shifted. The central bank's RRR cut pushed short - term interest rates down, but long - term interest rates rebounded due to factors such as local government bond issuance and CPI increase. The "bull - steep" market of interest - rate bonds and the financing repair of credit bonds diverged [48]. - Industry Financing Differentiation between Trade Pressure and Domestic Demand Hedging: Different industries' credit bond financing showed a differentiated trend. Export - oriented industries such as commercial trade and light manufacturing saw a decline in net financing, while the public utility industry benefited from domestic demand support and had an increase in net financing [51]. - Overall Decline in Credit Bond Yields and Narrow - range Fluctuation of Credit Spreads: After the formal implementation of tariffs, the market's pricing of trade frictions became less sensitive. Credit bond yields declined, and credit spreads fluctuated within a narrow range. Although trade frictions escalated again in September 2018, the bond market reacted calmly. Low - grade industrial bond credit spreads widened, and the impact of domestic policies on the bond market gradually exceeded external shocks [55]. - Relative Advantage of Non - standard Bonds of Urban Investment Entities after Trade Friction Upgrade: Credit bond defaults increased, mainly among private enterprises. Non - standard bonds of non - urban investment entities had a significant increase in default cases, while those of urban investment entities were relatively stable, reflecting the positive role of local policy coordination [61][62]. Third Stage: Wide - Credit Verification Period (December 2018 - April 2019) - "Time Difference" Game between Liquidity Drive and Credit Repair: The bond market was driven by both the easing of trade frictions and domestic policy loosening. Although the G20 Summit in December 2018 and the central bank's full - scale RRR cut in January 2019 boosted market sentiment, private enterprise credit spreads remained high. The bond market turned bearish in April 2019 as economic fundamentals improved [69]. - Differentiated Financing between State - owned and Private Enterprises under Tariff Easing and Policy Loosening: State - owned enterprises benefited from policy loosening and had an increase in net financing, while private enterprises were still affected by the lagged impact of previous tariffs. Their net financing showed a fluctuating trend [72]. - Credit Bond Yields Oscillated and Industrial Bond Spreads of Different Industries Differentiated: As trade frictions eased, credit bond yields oscillated, and credit spreads differentiated. The market logic shifted to fundamental verification. Industries such as electrical equipment and chemical industry, which were affected by tariffs, had a slower credit spread repair than the overall market [74][78]. - Credit Bond Default Situation Remained Flat Year - on - Year with Insufficient Improvement for Private Enterprises: During the negotiation easing period, the number of credit bond extensions and defaults remained basically the same as the previous stage. Financial institutions preferred high - credit entities, and private enterprises still faced challenges in financing [81]. Fourth Stage: Resonance Period of Liquidity Stratification and Cross - border Capital Pricing (May 2019 - January 2020) - Dual Pricing Logic of Credit Risk Events and Foreign Capital Safe - haven: The takeover of Baoshang Bank in May 2019 led to concerns about liquidity stratification. Foreign capital increased its allocation of interest - rate bonds, and the bond market showed a pattern of safe - haven interest - rate bonds and differentiated credit bonds. The bond market was driven by both "safe - haven sentiment" and "foreign capital allocation" [85]. - Increased Financing of Urban Investment Bonds with Swinging Trade Friction Expectations: During the liquidity stratification stage, urban investment bond net financing continued to grow. Regulatory policies relaxed the "borrowing new to repay old" restrictions, and the central bank's policies provided a low - cost replacement space for urban investment platforms [88]. - Overall Decline in Credit Bond Yields with Intensified Structural Differentiation: Credit bond yields declined overall, but the market showed intensified structural differentiation. Yields of some industries such as electronics and automobiles increased, while those of infrastructure - related industries remained stable. High - grade state - owned enterprise industrial bond credit spreads narrowed, while those of AA + private enterprise industrial bonds widened [90][93]. - Credit Bond Defaults under the Prolonged Trade Friction: Under the continuous impact of trade frictions, credit bond defaults increased, mainly due to factors such as the slowdown of the macro - economic environment, the adjustment of corporate profit growth, and the impact on export - oriented enterprises. Non - standard bonds of urban investment platforms had relatively stable repayment performance [96]. Outlook on Credit Bond Trends in the Current Trade Friction - After the implementation of the 54% tariff policy on April 2, 2025, the credit bond market's core logic shifted. Interest - rate bonds reacted first, and the steep downward movement of the interest - rate curve opened up the valuation space for credit bonds. High - grade varieties are favored, and in the short - term, safe - haven sentiment will dominate. In the medium - term, attention should be paid to economic data and the possible impact of the valuation repair of Chinese dollar - denominated bonds. It is recommended to adopt a strategy of "moderately extending duration" + "moderately lowering credit quality" [100][105].