铜行业周报（20250428-20250502）：国内电解铜社会库存降至2023年以来同期新低

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the copper industry [6]. Core Viewpoints - Domestic electrolytic copper social inventory has dropped to a new low for the same period in 2023, supporting a positive outlook for copper prices as macroeconomic expectations improve [1]. - As of April 30, 2025, the SHFE copper closing price was 77,220 RMB/ton, down 0.9% from the previous week, while the LME copper closing price was 9,366 USD/ton, down 0.1% [1]. - The copper industry is currently experiencing a divergence between macroeconomic pressures and supply-demand tensions, with domestic electrolytic copper inventory at a near five-year low providing price support [1][2]. Summary by Sections Inventory - Domestic copper social inventory decreased by 28.7% week-on-week, while LME copper inventory decreased by 2.7% [2]. - As of April 30, 2025, domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory was 836,000 tons, up 4.2% week-on-week [2]. - Global electrolytic copper inventory across the three major exchanges totaled 431,000 tons, the highest for the same period in nearly six years, down 4.5% week-on-week [2]. Supply - In April 2025, China's electrolytic copper production was 1,125,700 tons, up 0.3% month-on-month and up 14.3% year-on-year [3]. - The copper concentrate production in China for December 2024 was 152,000 tons, up 9.5% month-on-month and up 6.9% year-on-year [2]. - The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper was 1,371 RMB/ton as of April 30, 2025, down 285 RMB/ton from the previous week [2]. Demand - The cable industry's operating rate was 89.45%, down 1.78 percentage points week-on-week [3]. - The production of household air conditioners is expected to grow by 14.3% year-on-year in July 2025, indicating strong demand in the home appliance sector [3][97]. - The operating rate for brass rods, which account for 4.2% of domestic copper demand, was 54.4% in March 2025, up 14 percentage points month-on-month but down 8 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Futures - As of April 30, 2025, the active SHFE copper contract had a holding of 169,000 lots, up 1.5% week-on-week [4]. - The COMEX non-commercial net long position was 19,000 lots, down 21.8% week-on-week [4]. - The report anticipates that copper prices will continue to rise in 2025 due to tightening supply and improving demand [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends stocks such as Jincheng Mining, Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Western Mining, while also suggesting to pay attention to Minmetals Resources [4].