煤炭开采行业周报：压力测试或接近尾声，望阴霾散尽现晴空

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key coal companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and Xinji Energy, while recommending "Hold" for Pingmei Shenma [10]. Core Viewpoints - The coal price adjustment cycle, which began from the historical peak in Q4 2021, is nearing its end, with expectations of a market recovery as prices approach their bottom [2]. - The coal industry is currently experiencing significant profit declines, with Q1 2025 profits for major coal enterprises down by approximately 47.7% year-on-year [1][6]. - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding the fundamental attributes of the industry and maintaining confidence during this challenging period [2]. Market Overview - As of April 30, 2025, the North Port thermal coal price is reported at 657 CNY/ton, down 111 CNY/ton from the beginning of the year, reflecting a return to early 2021 levels [9][10]. - The report notes that the coal market is under pressure due to weak demand, with significant price declines observed across various coal types [1][7]. - The report highlights that the coal industry is in a critical phase of price exploration, with expectations of a seasonal demand rebound [3][9]. Key Sector Analysis - Thermal Coal: The market remains weak, with prices under pressure from high inventory levels and low demand from power plants [11][23]. - Coking Coal: The market is stable but weak, with supply slightly increasing and demand primarily driven by essential needs [49][62]. - Profitability: The profitability of coal companies has been severely impacted, with many reporting significant year-on-year declines in net profits [22][6]. Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on state-owned enterprises like China Shenhua and China Coal Energy, as well as companies showing signs of recovery such as Qinfa [10]. - It suggests that companies with strong performance metrics are likely to see better stock performance, highlighting firms like Xinji Energy and Shaanxi Coal [10].