1Q25预览关注AI、汽车等新动能

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 71.20 [8][17]. Core Views - The company is expected to see a revenue growth of 44% year-on-year in Q1 2025, with a gross margin improvement of 0.9 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, and a net profit attributable to the parent company increasing by 47% year-on-year [1][5]. - The automotive business is projected to generate revenue of HKD 18.2 billion in Q1 2025, reflecting a 9% quarter-on-quarter growth [2][5]. - The report highlights three key factors influencing the company's business: the automotive sector, tariff impacts, and advancements in AI technology [1][4][5]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company’s revenue is forecasted to reach RMB 483.63 billion in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 32.17% [7][15]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be RMB 40.52 billion in 2025, representing a 48.36% increase year-on-year [7][15]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be RMB 1.61 in 2025 [7][15]. Automotive Business Insights - The company anticipates delivering 76,000 vehicles in Q1 2025, with the automotive business revenue expected to reach HKD 18.2 billion [2][5]. - The first SUV model, YU7, is expected to launch in June-July 2025, and consumer feedback post-launch will be crucial [2]. AI Developments - The company has launched its first inference model, Xiaomi MiMo, which has shown superior performance in public evaluations compared to competitors [3]. - The report expresses optimism regarding the company's AI capabilities enhancing its entire product ecosystem, thereby increasing consumer engagement [3]. Tariff Impact - The direct impact of tariffs on the company is considered limited, with a focus on how competitors like Apple respond to tariff challenges [4][5]. Valuation Methodology - The target price of HKD 71.20 is based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation method, assuming a forward HKD to RMB exchange rate of 0.92, corresponding to a 40 times PE ratio for 2025 [5][17]. - The valuation includes HKD 27.2 per share for the automotive business and HKD 44 for the mobile and IoT segments [19].