五矿期货文字早评-20250506

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of various sectors including macro - finance, non - ferrous metals, black building materials, energy chemicals, and agricultural products. It takes into account factors such as policy changes, supply - demand relationships, and international trade situations to provide investment suggestions and price trend outlooks for each sector [2][4][11] 3. Summary by Relevant Categories 3.1 Macro - Finance - Stock Index: The previous trading day saw the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.23%, while the ChiNext Index rose 0.83%, the STAR 50 Index rose 0.85%, etc. The total trading volume of the two markets was 1169.3 billion yuan, an increase of 147.2 billion yuan from the previous day. There were positive macro news such as the increase in the sales of key retail and catering enterprises during the "May Day" holiday. It is suggested to buy long positions in IH or IF index futures related to the economy on dips and consider long positions in IC or IM futures related to "new quality productivity" [2] - Treasury Bonds: The bond market may return to fundamentals. With the weakening of manufacturing PMI in April, economic growth in the second quarter may be under pressure. The central bank's attitude towards liquidity remains supportive, and interest rates are expected to fluctuate downward in the long - run after short - term fluctuations [6] - Precious Metals: Although the prices of gold and silver were weak during the "May Day" holiday, the medium - term driving factors for the rise in gold prices remain unchanged. It is recommended to maintain a long - term bullish view on gold and wait to buy on dips after the correction. For silver, it is suggested to wait and see for now [7][8] 3.2 Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: During the "May Day" holiday, LME copper stocks decreased, and domestic refined copper production is expected to increase slightly in May. If the Sino - US trade situation eases, copper prices may continue to rise, but there are also pressures such as inflation expectations and weakening supply - demand relationships [11] - Aluminum: Aluminum prices declined and then rebounded during the holiday. If Sino - US relations improve, aluminum prices may rebound further, but the weakening domestic manufacturing industry poses a challenge to the demand for aluminum [12] - Zinc: Zinc ore inventory is increasing, and there is a risk of a decline in zinc prices due to the expected increase in social inventory and weakening downstream demand [13] - Lead: The lead market shows that lead ore inventory is rising, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term and move in a box - shaped range in the medium - term [14][15] - Nickel: The supply of nickel exceeds demand. With weakening downstream demand and the expected increase in intermediate product production in May, it is recommended to short nickel on rallies [16] - Tin: The supply of tin is currently tight but is expected to ease in the future. With the impact of tariffs on demand, the price of tin may decline [17] - Lithium Carbonate: The price is under pressure due to weakening demand expectations, cost valuation decline, and the market may further test the industry's price acceptance [18] - Alumina: The supply surplus situation persists, and it is recommended to short on rallies [20] - Stainless Steel: The cost of raw materials is high, and supply is expected to tighten. The market for 304 stainless steel is expected to gradually improve [21] 3.3 Black Building Materials - Steel: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils showed a weakening trend. The overall supply - demand structure of steel has no obvious contradictions, but the market is affected by overseas exports and production restriction rumors. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [23][24] - Iron Ore: Iron ore shipments decreased slightly, and demand is expected to peak and decline. The price of the main contract is likely to be weak [25][26] - Glass and Soda Ash: The price of glass is expected to be weak, and the supply of soda ash is at a high level. Although there is some support from demand, the medium - term supply is still abundant, and the price is expected to be weak [27] - Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are in a downward trend. It is not recommended to buy on dips prematurely, and it is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - term trading [28][29] - Industrial Silicon: The supply of industrial silicon exceeds demand, and the price is under pressure. It is not recommended to buy on dips [34][35] 3.4 Energy Chemicals - Rubber: Rubber prices rose slightly during the holiday. There are different views on the market, with bulls focusing on potential production cuts and bears on weak demand. It is recommended to take a moderately bullish short - term approach [37][39] - Crude Oil: OPEC's production increase has been realized. It is recommended to take profits on short positions on dips and consider short - term long positions in the positive spread [40] - Methanol: The supply of methanol is increasing, and demand is weakening. The price is expected to decline, and it is recommended to short on rallies [41] - Urea: The market has high supply and low demand. If export restrictions are relaxed, it may boost the market. It is recommended to hold long positions for those who have already entered the market at low prices and wait for a better entry opportunity for new investors [42] - Styrene: The price of styrene is under pressure due to factors such as the decline in the price of pure benzene and weak demand. It is recommended to hold short positions [43][45] - PVC: The supply and demand of PVC are both weak. Although inventory is decreasing, the price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [46] - Ethylene Glycol: The supply of ethylene glycol is decreasing, but the expected inventory reduction has not been realized. The price is expected to be weak in the short - term [47] - PTA: The supply of PTA is still in the maintenance season, and there is a risk of negative feedback in the medium - term. However, the short - term valuation is supported, and it is recommended to short on rallies following the trend of crude oil [48] - Para - Xylene: PX is also in the maintenance season, and there is a risk of negative feedback in the medium - term. The short - term valuation is supported, and it is recommended to short on rallies with the trend of crude oil [49] - Polyethylene (PE): The supply of PE may be under pressure in the second quarter, and the price is expected to fluctuate [50] - Polypropylene (PP): The cost of PP has some support, and the price is expected to be slightly bearish in May [51] 3.5 Agricultural Products - Hogs: The domestic hog price fluctuated slightly during the holiday. It is recommended to short on rallies caused by short - term market sentiment and wait and see in the short - term [54] - Eggs: The egg price was stable during the holiday, but it is expected to be weak in May. It is recommended to short on rallies [55] - Soybean and Rapeseed Meal: The price of domestic soybean meal is expected to decline in the future due to sufficient supply, while the price of US soybeans has some support. It is recommended to pay attention to the trading rhythm [56][58] - Oils and Fats: The price of palm oil is under pressure due to production increase and other factors. The demand for US soybean oil may be boosted. The price of oils and fats is expected to decline, but there is a possibility of support in the medium - term if the macro - economy stabilizes [59][61] - Sugar: The supply of raw sugar is expected to increase, and the price may decline. The domestic sugar price can maintain a high - level shock for now, but there is a risk of decline in the future [62][64] - Cotton: Affected by tariffs and the end of the consumption peak season, the cotton price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US negotiations and inventory changes [65][66]