沪锌早报：压力位依旧有效，关注区间回落-20250506

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Nickel - Short after a rebound [1] - Stainless steel - Hold [1] - Zinc - Bearish outlook [4] Core Views Nickel and Stainless Steel - The Indonesian Nickel Price Index (INPI) released at the end of April showed a decline in nickel prices. The cost of electrowinning nickel is expected to decrease after May. Demand support from downstream nickel sulfate and profit thresholds of external procurement manufacturers have both declined. Stainless steel production cuts are less likely. Despite a short - term rebound in nickel prices, the fundamental oversupply trend remains unchanged [1][2]. Zinc - The International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) predicts a surplus of refined zinc in 2025. The supply side is generally loosening, while the demand side is likely to weaken, with a bearish outlook in the medium - to - long term [4][5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro & Industry News - Nickel: The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) released the latest INPI on April 28. The price of nickel pig iron (NPI) decreased by 1.6% week - on - week, and the prices of high - grade nickel matte and mixed hydroxide precipitate (MHP) also declined [1]. - Zinc: The ILZSG expects a surplus of 93,000 tons of refined zinc in 2025. Global refined zinc demand is expected to grow by 1% to 13.64 million tons, and production will increase by 1.8% to 13.73 million tons. Zinc ore production is expected to grow by 4.3% to 12.43 million tons [4]. Supply - Nickel: Indonesia increased mining royalties on the 26th, and the price of nickel ore is firm. Although the total supply of domestic electrolytic nickel has decreased month - on - month, it remains at a historically high level. The cost of electrowinning nickel is expected to decline [1]. - Zinc: Mining enterprise profits have shrunk, but the TC price has not declined, and imports at the mine end have significantly improved. The profit of integrated enterprises has shrunk but remains at a relatively high level. The possibility of production cuts at the supply side is extremely low, and the supply is generally loosening [4]. Demand - Nickel: The cost of nickel in the process of producing nickel sulfate from nickel beans is around 127,000 yuan, which is consistent with the technical pressure level. Stainless steel production cuts are less likely [2]. - Zinc: The "Golden March and Silver April" peak demand season is coming to an end. Galvanizing production enthusiasm is low, and the demand for zinc ingots is starting to decline. Die - casting alloy and zinc oxide markets also show weak demand [5]. Conclusion - Nickel: Although there are still concerns about Sino - US trade, the market expects the US attitude to ease. Nickel prices have rebounded in the short term, but the fundamental oversupply trend remains unchanged [2]. - Zinc: The impact of tariffs has temporarily subsided. In the short term, the situation is changing from tight to loose, and there is a surplus in the medium - to - long term, with a bearish outlook [5]. Operation Suggestions - Nickel: Short [2] - Zinc: Wait for an opportunity to short; if there is no rebound, the downside space is limited [6]