关税缓和，风偏回升，钢材表需上行，煤焦有望反弹

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Jiao coal: Oscillating weakly in the short - term [1] - Coke: Oscillating in the short - term [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the holiday, the domestic market's risk appetite is expected to rise due to the release of goodwill signals in tariff negotiations, and the decline caused by risk - aversion before the holiday is expected to be compensated [3]. - The coal - coke industry has different situations. For coking coal, the spot is under pressure, and the upstream inventory pressure is high. After the delivery game of the 05 contract ends, it will return to trading based on supply - demand expectations. For coke, the second round of spot price increase faces obstacles, but there is support for demand. In the context of the expected policy of reducing crude steel production this year, the steel industry's performance is expected to strengthen, which may drive the repair of the industrial chain's profits [4]. - It is recommended to continue holding long positions in J09 in the short - term [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Coking Coal Supply and Demand - The supply shows a narrow - range oscillation. The operating rate of 110 coal - washing plants is 61.9% (- 0.8), showing a slight decline. The demand continues to rise. The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is 73.41% (+ 0.42) [1]. Inventory - Upstream mines are accumulating inventory, with the refined coal inventory of 523 mines at 333.34 million tons (- 2.17) and the raw coal inventory at 516.78 million tons (+ 12.28). The refined coal inventory of coal - washing plants is 181.33 million tons (- 11.63). Downstream, the inventory of 247 steel mills is 784.23 million tons (+ 4.6), and the inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 829.86 million tons (+ 15.14). The port inventory is 337.38 million tons (- 11.54) [2]. Spot Price and Spread - The price of Mongolian 5 main coking coal is 1040 yuan/ton (- 0), and the price of main coking coal produced in Shanxi at Jingtang Port is 1380 yuan/ton (- 0). The September contract is reported at 956 yuan/ton (- 6.5). The basis is 104 yuan/ton (+ 6.5), and the 5 - 9 month spread is - 63.5 yuan/ton (+ 15) [1]. Coke Supply and Demand - The supply increases, with the production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises at 73.41% (+ 0.42). The demand reaches its peak. The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 90.15% (- 0.04), and the daily average pig iron output is 2.4012 million tons (- 0.1) [2]. Inventory - The middle - and upper - reaches are accumulating inventory. The inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 67.96 million tons (+ 2.06), and the port inventory is 246.1 million tons (+ 13.01). The downstream is reducing inventory, with the inventory of 247 steel mills at 664.4 million tons (- 3.59) [2]. Spot Price, Spread and Profit - The price of quasi - first - grade coke at Tianjin Port is 1440 yuan/ton (+ 0). After the first - round price increase is implemented, there is an expectation of a second - round increase. The September contract is reported at 1590.5 yuan/ton (- 4.5). The basis is - 40.28 yuan/ton (+ 4.5), and the 5 - 9 month spread is 1.5 yuan/ton (+ 5.5) [2].