巴基斯坦穷人分类（英）2025

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Understanding the heterogeneity of poor households in Pakistan is crucial for identifying pathways out of poverty and informing policy actions [4][12] - The analysis categorizes the bottom 40th consumption percentile of households (B40) into five distinct groups using non-parametric hierarchical cluster analysis [4][16] - The findings indicate that poverty is not uniform, with different groups facing unique constraints and opportunities shaped by their economic environment and household-specific factors [12][16] Summary by Sections Introduction - Between 2001 and 2018, Pakistan experienced a 60% growth in household real consumption, leading to a decline in poverty from 64.3% to 21.9% [7] - Despite this decline, significant disparities in welfare persist across provinces, with rural areas experiencing higher poverty rates compared to urban areas [8][10] - Recent crises, including the COVID-19 pandemic and climate-induced shocks, have reversed some poverty reduction gains, with poverty projected at 25.3% in 2023 [10] Data and Methodology - The analysis utilizes data from the Household Integrated Economic Survey (HIES) 2018-19, covering 24,809 households across various provinces [20][22] - A hierarchical clustering method is employed to identify five clusters among the B40 households based on their characteristics [14][55] - The final clustering solution is determined to be optimal at five clusters, allowing for targeted policy interventions [48][55] Results - The cluster analysis identifies five groups among the B40 households: 1. Group 1: Ultra-poor rural households relying on unskilled sharecropping and public safety nets [16][57] 2. Group 2: Poor rural households engaged in agriculture as owner-cultivators [16][64] 3. Group 3: Households in transition with low labor force participation, often receiving remittances [16][64] 4. Group 4: Urban households with higher education and semi-skilled jobs in industry and services [16][64] 5. Group 5: Poor households engaged in unskilled daily wage labor across various sectors [16][64] - Each group exhibits distinct characteristics and constraints, necessitating differentiated policy responses to effectively address their unique challenges [57][64]