2024年基础设施监测（英）

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for infrastructure, particularly in developed markets, with a notable rebound in greenfield investments and a projected recovery in secondary market activities as interest rates decline [9][11]. Core Insights - Global private investment in infrastructure projects increased by 10 percent in 2023, primarily driven by developed markets, while low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) saw a slight decline [9][10]. - Infrastructure fundraising faced significant challenges in 2023, with total capital raised dropping to $94.9 billion, nearly half of 2022 levels, but is expected to stabilize in 2024 [18][19]. - Infrastructure debt remains attractive to investors due to its reliable cash flows and historically lower default rates compared to non-financial corporate debt, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 77 percent in 2023 [25][84]. - Renewable energy and transport sectors dominate infrastructure investment, accounting for two-thirds of total activity, with a significant surge in private investment in hydrogen projects [31][36]. - The report highlights a growing divergence in investment levels between high-income countries (HICs) and LMICs, with HICs experiencing a 15 percent increase in infrastructure investment in primary markets [45][46]. Summary by Sections Greenfield Investment - Greenfield investment in developed markets continues to rebound, while growth in emerging markets lags behind, with infrastructure delivery costs rising significantly [9][10]. Fundraising Challenges - Rising interest rates have tempered return expectations and led to a significant decline in infrastructure fundraising, with total capital raised dropping to $94.9 billion in 2023 [17][18]. Resilience Amid Uncertainty - Despite macroeconomic challenges, private infrastructure financing has maintained a stable debt-to-equity ratio, with infrastructure debt showing lower default rates and higher recovery rates [25][84]. Policy and Sector Priorities - Policy changes are influencing investor strategies, with renewable energy and transport leading investment, while digital infrastructure is gaining traction [31][32]. Investment Gaps - There is a widening investment gap between HICs and LMICs, with HICs representing a larger share of private investment in infrastructure [45][46]. Regulatory Frameworks - Strengthening regulatory frameworks is essential for attracting private capital in emerging markets, with improvements potentially increasing investment by approximately $500 million [54][56]. Role of Development Institutions - Development institutions play a critical role in mobilizing private capital in LMICs, providing co-financing for 30 percent of total private investment [61][62]. Blended Finance Solutions - Blended finance and guarantees are effective tools for bridging investment gaps, with evidence showing that projects backed by guarantees have higher private capital mobilization [65][67]. Local Currency Financing - Local currency financing for private investment in infrastructure projects in LMICs decreased to 37 percent in 2023, highlighting the need for strategies to protect against foreign exchange volatility [72][73]. Capital Market Opportunities - There is a growing shift towards leveraging domestic and international capital markets to mobilize long-term funding for infrastructure projects, particularly through green and sustainability-linked bonds [78][82]. Conclusion - The report concludes that while private investment in infrastructure has faced volatility, it remains resilient, with a focus on low-risk strategies and the importance of regulatory and policy interventions to close investment gaps [83][85].