LPG：原油支撑走弱，关注月间正套

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report focuses on LPG, suggesting that the support from crude oil is weakening, and investors should pay attention to the calendar spread arbitrage. [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - Futures Prices: On May 6, 2025, the closing price of PG2506 was 4,400 with a daily increase of 0.02%, and the closing price of PG2507 was 4,306 with a daily increase of 0.37%. [2] - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of PG2506 was 73,226, an increase of 21,123 from the previous day, and the open interest was 60,054, a decrease of 3,341. The trading volume of PG2507 was 20,999, an increase of 11,489, and the open interest was 32,709, an increase of 4,790. [2] - Price Spreads: The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and the 06 contract was 800 (previous day: 801), and the spread between Guangzhou imported gas and the 07 contract was 944 (previous day: 851). [2] - Industrial Chain Data: This week, the PDH operating rate was 60.1% (last week: 63.2%), the MTBE operating rate was 65.0% (previous: 67.2%), and the alkylation operating rate was 45.2% (previous: 47.8%). [2] Trend Intensity The LPG trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral stance. The trend intensity ranges from -2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish). [9] Market Information - Saudi CP Expectations: On April 29, 2025, the expected price of propane in the June Saudi CP was 572 USD/ton, up 13 USD/ton from the previous trading day, and the expected price of butane was 552 USD/ton, up 18 USD/ton. The expected price of propane in the July Saudi CP was 546 USD/ton, and the expected price of butane was 526 USD/ton. [10] - Domestic PDH Plant Maintenance Plans: Multiple PDH plants have ongoing or planned maintenance, including those of Puyang Yuandong Technology Co., Ltd., Jiangsu Yanchang Zhongran Chemical Co., Ltd., etc., with capacities ranging from 15 to 900,000 tons per year and various start and end times. [10] - Domestic LPG Plant Maintenance Plans: Many LPG plants and related facilities are under maintenance, such as Zhenghua Petrochemical, Panjin Haoye, etc., with different normal production volumes, loss volumes, and maintenance periods. [11]