2025年5月6日利率债观察：静待DR007向OMO回归

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The current bond yield is in a state where the upward space is relatively small and the downward probability is relatively large. Investors can be more optimistic than in the first quarter of this year [1][9] - In the near future, DR007 will steadily fall back to near the OMO rate. The "positive deviation" of DR007 from the 7D OMO rate since the first quarter of this year will return to normal, and relevant events in April accelerated this process [1][11][17] - The regulator should adopt a "soft landing" and "gradual" strategy in guiding the downward movement of the capital interest rate, which helps investors form stable expectations for monetary policy [4][21] Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Wait for DR007 to Return to OMO - On April 30, the yields of 10Y and 30Y treasury bonds had decreased by 3.6bp and 10.4bp respectively compared to April 25, which was consistent with the previous judgment [1][9] - Since 2018, DR007 has mostly run smoothly around the 7D OMO rate. In extreme cases such as 2020 and 2022, there were "negative deviations", and in the first quarter of this year, there was a "positive deviation" [2][14] - Whether it is a "positive deviation" or a "negative deviation", it is only temporary. The "negative deviation" in 2020 and 2022 only lasted for a few months and then returned to normal [3][17] - As the liquidity of the banking system becomes more abundant, the lending rate of large banks will also decline. The CD rate still has room to decline, and the decline of DR007 can guide the reduction of CD and other rates [3][21]