棉花：仍缺乏上涨驱动

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The cotton market still lacks upward drivers [1] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: CF2509 closed at 12,750 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.70%, and its trading volume was 243,543 lots, a decrease of 12,789 lots from the previous day, while the position increased by 343 lots to 758,897 lots; CY2507 closed at 18,790 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.16%, its trading volume was 5,366 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots from the previous day, and the position increased by 1,045 lots to 19,713 lots; ICE Cotton 07 closed at 68.53 cents/pound with a daily increase of 0.25% [1] - Warehouse Receipt Data: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 11,040, an increase of 202 from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 1,315, a decrease of 243; the number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 10, unchanged from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 1, an increase of 9 [1] - Spot Price Data: The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 13,848 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan or 0.65% from the previous day; the price of Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 13,663 yuan/ton, a decrease of 77 yuan or 0.56% from the previous day; the price in Shandong was 14,246 yuan/ton, a decrease of 64 yuan or 0.45% from the previous day; the price in Hebei was 14,260 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan or 0.49% from the previous day; the 3128B index was 14,183 yuan/ton, a decrease of 49 yuan or 0.34% from the previous day; the international cotton index M was 74.90 cents/pound, a decrease of 1 cent or 1.41% from the previous day; the price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32s was 20,410 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan or 0.39% from the previous day; the arrival price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32s was 22,220 yuan/ton, a decrease of 106 yuan or 0.47% from the previous day [1] - Spread Data: The CF9 - 1 spread was - 210 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan from the previous day; the spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF509 was 1,100 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] Macro and Industry News - Domestic Cotton Spot Situation: The basis of domestic cotton spot was temporarily stable. The sales basis of 2024/25 Southern Xinjiang machine - picked 3129/29 - 30B with impurity within 3.5 was mostly around CF09 + 750, and some were quoted higher than CF09 + 850 for self - pick - up in Xinjiang; the sales basis of 2024/25 Northern Xinjiang machine - picked 4129/29 - 30B with impurity within 3.5 was mostly above CF09 + 1000, and a small amount of low - price ones were between CF09 + 950 - 1000 for self - pick - up in Xinjiang; the transaction basis of 2024/25 Northern Xinjiang Corps machine - picked 4129/29B with impurity within 3.5 was partly between CF09 + 1250 - 1300 for self - pick - up in Xinjiang [2] - Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises Situation: The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market was poor, and textile enterprises mainly negotiated sales. The price of cotton yarn was stable with a weak trend, market confidence was insufficient, and the operating rate of textile enterprises continued to decline [2] - US Cotton Situation: During the long holiday, ICE cotton rose by more than 3%, mainly due to a sharp increase on May 2nd, benefiting from the optimistic expectation of the trade agreement; the fundamental driving force in the international cotton market was still weak, the weather in the US cotton - growing areas improved, and the weekly export sales data of US cotton was average [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton was 0, indicating a neutral trend [3][4]