中金-图说中国：2025年二季度

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The macroeconomic environment remains under pressure, with GDP growth in Q1 2025 at 5.4% year-on-year, consistent with Q4 2024, but showing a slowdown in quarter-on-quarter growth to 1.2% from 1.6% [13][14] - Infrastructure investment is expected to maintain high growth, with broad infrastructure investment rising by 11.5% year-on-year in Q1 2025, supported by government bond issuance and fiscal space [13][14] - External uncertainties are increasing, which may exert downward pressure on the economy, particularly on exports, with a notable decline in import growth from China [13][22] Macroeconomic Summary - Q1 2025 saw stable economic growth, supported by policy measures and export pre-positioning effects, but prices remain weak, with a GDP deflator index down 0.8% year-on-year [13][14] - Infrastructure investment is projected to remain around 10% year-on-year in Q2 2025, driven by traditional infrastructure projects [13][14] - The report highlights the need to monitor external uncertainties and their impact on economic performance, particularly in relation to U.S. tariff policies [13][22] Market Strategy Summary - Key focus areas include domestic economic data, policy implementation, and overseas macroeconomic policies and geopolitical situations [44] - A-shares are expected to see flat or slightly negative earnings growth in Q1 2025 due to external tariff impacts, but some support from pre-export effects is anticipated [44] - The report suggests that Chinese assets may exhibit resilience despite external pressures, with current valuations of the CSI 300 index below historical averages, making it attractive for investment [44][46] Sector Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, sectors such as non-ferrous metals, automobiles, and machinery led the A-share market performance, while coal and real estate lagged [48][49] - The report indicates that the performance of various sectors reflects the ongoing economic adjustments and policy impacts [48][49] Economic Indicators Summary - The report notes a rebound in social financing growth in Q1 2025, indicating a potential recovery in funding demand [64] - Inflation remains low domestically, with CPI and PPI showing negative year-on-year changes, reflecting subdued price pressures [67] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring liquidity conditions and interest rate expectations, with a historical low in ten-year government bond yields [86][88]