高盛：中国房地产周报-第17周总结-订阅量更大幅度下滑

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report highlights a deeper pullback in subscription-based volume and visitor traffic in export-centric cities, with subscription-based secondary sales in approximately 15 monitored cities falling by 7% week-over-week (wow) and 9% in export-reliant cities [1] - Primary markets with the highest export exposure underperformed peers, showing an improvement of only 11% wow compared to 19% and 15% for cities with the least exposure and other peers respectively [1] - Secondary visitor traffic in export-centric cities dropped sharply by 13% wow, indicating a significant decline in market activity [2] Summary by Sections Sales Volume - New homes sales volume increased by 6% wow but decreased by 11% year-over-year (yoy), with tier-1 and Yangtze River Delta (YRD) cities outperforming [5] - Secondary transactions averaged an increase of 11% wow and 4% yoy, despite negative price appreciation expectations from agents and homeowners [5] - Year-to-date (YTD) primary gross floor area (GFA) sold averaged a 1% yoy increase but was down 31% and 12% compared to 2023 and 2022 levels respectively [6] Market Trends - Property sales in around 75 cities suggest that top-100 developers' presales are likely to decline by 4% yoy in April, compared to an 11% decline in March [7] - The GSPC tracker indicates a high-single-digit to teen-level yoy decline in completions for April 2025, with a projected 3% yoy increase for FY25E [7] - New starts are expected to record a high-teens level yoy decline in April, based on land sales trends and cement shipment ratios [7] Visitor Traffic and Sentiment - The latest new home search demand heat index edged up by 0.2% wow, remaining below the levels seen in 1Q25 and post-September 2024 easing [18] - Secondary listing supply in export-reliant cities decreased by 3% wow, while visitor traffic fell by 13% wow, indicating a decline in market engagement [20] Inventory and Valuation - Inventory levels remained flattish week-over-week and decreased by 2.6% from the end of 2024, with inventory months at 26.3 [50] - The report notes that offshore developers are trading at an average 35% discount to end-2025E NAV, while onshore developers are at a 19% discount [63]