高盛：5 月FOMC- 降息门槛提高

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry discussed [3][5]. Core Insights - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is setting a higher bar for rate cuts compared to the 2019 trade war, with a focus on needing compelling evidence of economic slowdown before acting [5][30]. - The report forecasts three consecutive 25 basis point rate cuts in July, September, and October, reflecting a dovish stance relative to market pricing due to the higher risk of recession from tariffs and trade policy uncertainty [21][31]. Summary by Sections Economic Outlook - The report anticipates a GDP growth of just 0.5% on a Q4/Q4 basis for the year, with an expected rise in the unemployment rate by 0.5 percentage points to 4.7% as labor demand falls [21][25]. - The economic data has shown a rapid deterioration in survey data, while hard data has yet to reflect significant weakness, indicating a lag in the impact of economic shocks [7][11]. FOMC Actions - The FOMC is likely to maintain the current target range for the funds rate and is not expected to make significant changes to balance sheet policy following the decision to slow the pace of Treasury runoff [5][30]. - Fed officials are cautious and will require more evidence from hard data, such as labor market indicators, before considering rate cuts [6][26]. Business Confidence - Business confidence has sharply declined in recent months, leading companies to pull back on capital spending plans, which could further impact economic growth [11][21]. - The report highlights that a decline in job openings or capital goods orders could provide more concrete evidence of economic caution among companies [26][27].