高盛：石油评论-基于欧佩克 7 月起供应增加的假设下调油价预测

Investment Rating - The report indicates a modestly reduced oil price forecast due to higher OPEC supply assumptions, with Brent/WTI averaging $60/56 in the remainder of 2025 and $56/52 in 2026 [8][12][13] Core Insights - OPEC8+ countries decided to increase production by 411 thousand barrels per day (kb/d) month-over-month for June, reflecting low inventories and a strategic shift to support internal cohesion and discipline US shale supply [1][4] - The expected production increase for July has been adjusted to 0.41 million barrels per day (mb/d) from a previous estimate of 0.14 mb/d, driven by recent economic data suggesting resilient demand [5][8] - The oil price forecast has been nudged down by $2-3, with the new average prices reflecting adjustments in supply expectations and economic activity [8][12] Summary by Sections OPEC+ Production Decisions - The decision to raise production aligns with a broader strategy to manage compliance among member countries and address low oil inventories [4][5] - The report highlights that the production increase is likely to continue if compliance improves among lagging countries like Iraq and Kazakhstan [3][4] Economic Activity and Demand - Recent US economic data, including payroll reports and ISM readings, indicate solid momentum, suggesting that a slowdown in demand may not be imminent [5][7] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring compliance and economic indicators to assess future production levels and price forecasts [7][8] Price Forecast Adjustments - The updated oil price forecast reflects a downward adjustment due to increased supply expectations, with Brent and WTI prices expected to average lower than previously forecasted [8][12] - The report maintains that high spare capacity and recession risks skew the risks to oil prices to the downside despite tight spot fundamentals [9][10]