高盛：US Weekly Kickstart-标普 500 指数股本回报率持续领先全球

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the S&P 500, with a target of 5900, suggesting a potential upside from the current trading levels [2]. Core Insights - The S&P 500 return on equity (ROE) for 2024 is projected at 21.1%, marking a 34 basis points increase from the previous year and ranking in the 99th percentile over the past 50 years [2][4]. - The S&P 500's ROE is significantly higher than that of the rest of the developed world, with a gap of 8 percentage points (21% vs. 12%), which contributes to the US stock market's valuation premium [2][14]. - The report highlights that while the S&P 500 is expected to maintain its superior ROE, further widening of the ROE gap may be challenging due to headwinds affecting profit margins [2][31]. - The Magnificent 7 companies, which constitute a significant portion of the S&P 500, are experiencing a slowdown in ROE growth, which may impact overall index performance [33]. Summary by Sections Return on Equity Analysis - The S&P 500 ROE is highest in the Consumer Discretionary (34%) and Information Technology (32%) sectors, while Real Estate has the lowest ROE at 9% [2][10]. - The report utilizes a DuPont decomposition to analyze ROE drivers, identifying higher EBIT margins and asset turnover as key contributors to the ROE increase in 2024 [4][25]. Sector Performance - ROE increased in five out of eleven sectors in 2024, with the most significant expansion in Communication Services (+412 basis points) and the largest contraction in Energy (-537 basis points) [8][10]. - The report notes that the S&P 500 currently trades at a 2.4x greater Price/Book (P/B) multiple compared to the MSCI World ex. US, reflecting the valuation premium associated with higher profitability [10][12]. Future Outlook - Analysts expect the S&P 500 ROE to remain flat in 2025, with a slight increase of 40 basis points in 2026, similar to expectations for the MSCI World ex. US [31]. - The report emphasizes the importance of geographic diversification in investment portfolios due to the anticipated challenges in maintaining profit margins [31].