高盛：美国股票-标普 500 指数财报季中期盈利更新

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or companies analyzed Core Insights - The S&P 500 earnings growth for 1Q 2025 is tracking at 12%, significantly higher than the initial expectation of 6%, primarily driven by positive margin surprises [3][4][6] - There is an elevated level of uncertainty reflected in corporate forward guidance, with a lower proportion of companies providing EPS guidance compared to historical averages [3][10] - Consensus EPS revisions have been negative, indicating that uncertainty is beginning to weigh on demand and investment, with both sales and capex revision breadth turning more negative recently [3][21][22] - A notable increase in the mention of "recession" by S&P 500 companies during earnings calls, rising from 2% last quarter to 24% this quarter, highlights growing concerns about economic conditions [3][26][33] - Companies are quantifying the expected impact of tariffs on their financial metrics, with 22% of reporting companies providing estimates related to tariffs [31][34] Summary by Sections Earnings Performance - Year-over-year S&P 500 EPS growth is tracking at 12%, with better-than-expected margins contributing to positive surprises [3][4] - 51% of S&P 500 companies beat consensus EPS forecasts by more than a standard deviation, slightly above the long-term average of 48% [6][11] Forward Guidance - 17% of S&P 500 companies provided quarter-ahead guidance, slightly below average, while 45% provided FY1 guidance, in line with average [10][20] - 56% of companies guided below consensus FY1 estimates, indicating a more negative outlook compared to historical averages [17][20] Economic Concerns - The frequency of companies mentioning "recession" has increased significantly, reflecting heightened economic uncertainty [26][28][33] - Management commentary has focused on recession risks and the potential impact of tariffs on business operations [3][31] Tariff Impact - Companies are actively discussing the potential impacts of tariffs, with many quantifying expected costs and mitigation strategies [31][34][40] - The estimated tariff-related costs for various companies range widely, with some projecting impacts of hundreds of millions of dollars [34][43]