Goldman Sachs·2025-05-06 02:43Investment Rating - The report provides a "BUY" rating for key Robotaxi companies such as Pony AI and Baidu, indicating a positive outlook for their growth potential in the Robotaxi market [19]. Core Insights - The China Robotaxi market is projected to reach a total addressable market (TAM) of US$47 billion by 2035, a significant increase from US$54 million in 2025, driven by decreasing costs of hardware and algorithms [13][24]. - The report emphasizes that the commercialization of L4 autonomous technology is not a question of readiness but rather how companies will capitalize on the rapid advancements in autonomous development [1]. - Positive gross margins are expected at the vehicle level by 2026 in Tier 1 cities, with revenues per Robotaxi projected to reach US$31,000 by 2035 [7][24]. Summary by Sections China Robotaxi TAM Snapshot - The report highlights a substantial growth trajectory for the China Robotaxi market, forecasting a TAM of US$47 billion by 2035, compared to US$54 million in 2025 [13][24]. Ecosystem: Supply Chain of Robotaxi - The supply chain for Robotaxis includes key players such as Pony AI and Baidu, along with semiconductor suppliers like Horizon Robotics and automotive OEMs like Tesla and Xpeng [7][19]. Market Size and Penetration - The report anticipates a fleet size of 1.9 million Robotaxis by 2035, achieving a penetration rate of 25% in the total shared mobility vehicle market [15][24]. - The market size is expected to grow significantly, with a forecast of 700 times the current TAM growth over the next decade [12]. Revenue Generation - Revenue per Robotaxi in Tier 1 cities is expected to reach US$31,000 by 2035, driven by longer operating hours and efficient route planning [7][24]. Cost Reduction - Operating costs for fleet owners are projected to decrease, with costs per vehicle in Tier 1 cities expected to drop to US$19,000 by 2035 [24]. Unit Economics - The report models positive unit economics, predicting profitability by 2026 in Tier 1 cities and by 2031 and 2034 in Tier 2 and other cities, respectively [7][24]. Policy and Insurance Support - Supportive government policies and the development of insurance for the Robotaxi industry are identified as crucial for facilitating growth [7][24]. Future Market Segmentation - The report discusses potential future developments in the Robotaxi market, including the introduction of new vehicle models and shared ownership models to encourage adoption [24].