马尔代夫发展更新，2025年4月（英）

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the Maldives industry Core Insights - Economic growth in the Maldives remained robust in 2024, with real GDP growth estimated at 5.5 percent, driven primarily by a strong tourism sector [18][34] - Tourist arrivals reached an all-time high of 2.05 million in 2024, marking an increase of 8.9 percent year-on-year [18][35] - Headline inflation averaged 1.4 percent in 2024, with food inflation rising to 6.6 percent [19][42] - The fiscal deficit widened to MVR 12.7 billion (US$822.4 million) or 11.7 percent of GDP in 2024, driven by increased expenditure [20][52] - The current account deficit (CAD) remained elevated at 20.5 percent of GDP in 2024, with a trade deficit of US$3.3 billion [21][68] - Foreign exchange reserves fell to critically low levels, reaching US$371.2 million in September 2024, before recovering to US$832.1 million by February 2025 [22][69] - Public and publicly guaranteed debt rose to US$9.4 billion, or 134.2 percent of GDP, in 2024 [25][59] - The report emphasizes the need for urgent fiscal consolidation to address rising public debt and external vulnerabilities [30][29] Economic Update - Growth remained robust while inflationary pressures picked up in recent months [34] - Fiscal deficits continued to increase and remain elevated [49] - Public debt and external debt servicing increased in 2024 [59] - Potential austerity measures may impact household welfare if unmitigated [65] - External pressures have severely reduced FX reserves [68] Outlook and Risks - Growth is forecast to moderate, inflation to increase, and fiscal and external deficits to remain elevated [26][27] - Risks to the outlook are heavily tilted to the downside [29] - Implementing a sharp fiscal adjustment remains an urgent priority in the medium term [30]