宝城期货豆类油脂早报-20250506

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal futures price has a risk of giving back the accumulated risk premium due to the expected easing of Sino - US trade tensions. After giving back the trade and supply risk premiums, the internal - external linkage is expected to be restored. The soybean meal futures price is expected to be strongly volatile in the short - term [6]. - The palm oil price is under pressure due to the expected increase in Malaysian palm oil inventory at the end of April and weak demand. The decline in international oil prices also affects the outlook for Indonesian biofuel demand. With the opening of the import profit window, domestic palm oil inventory is rising, and its short - term trend is weakly volatile [8]. 3. Summary by Variety 3.1 Soybean Meal (M) - Time - cycle Views: Short - term (within a week): oscillating; Medium - term (two weeks to one month): oscillating; Intraday: strongly volatile; Reference view: strongly volatile [7]. - Core Logic: The short - term trend is affected by factors such as import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, North American spring sowing weather, oil refinery operation rhythm, and stocking demand. After the holiday, the soybean meal futures price was weaker than the external market, and it is expected to be strongly volatile in the short - term due to the expected easing of Sino - US trade tensions and the restoration of internal - external linkage [6][7]. 3.2 Palm Oil (P) - Time - cycle Views: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: weakly volatile; Reference view: weakly volatile [7]. - Core Logic: The price is affected by factors such as Malaysian palm oil production and exports, Indonesian exports, tariff policies of major producing countries, domestic arrival and inventory, and substitution demand. With the expected increase in Malaysian palm oil inventory and weak demand, along with the decline in international oil prices and the increase in domestic inventory, the short - term trend is weakly volatile [7][8]. 3.3 Soybean Oil - Time - cycle Views: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: weakly volatile; Reference view: weakly volatile [7]. - Core Logic: The price is influenced by factors such as US tariff policies, US soybean oil inventory, biodiesel demand, domestic oil refinery inventory, and channel stocking demand [7].