宝城期货国债期货早报-20250506

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report anticipates that after the holiday, Treasury bond futures will mainly experience an oscillatory rebound as the expectation of macro - policy intensification rises and the expectation of interest rate cuts will gradually materialize [4] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2506 variety, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, the intraday view is oscillatory and bullish, and the overall view is range - bound. The core logic is that the manufacturing PMI has weakened and the expectation of interest rate cuts has increased [1] 2. Price and Market Driving Logic of Main Varieties - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, and TS. The intraday view is oscillatory and bullish, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is range - bound. The core logic is that last Wednesday, Treasury bond futures continued to oscillate in a narrow range. The April manufacturing PMI data announced by the statistics bureau last Wednesday was 49.0%, a 1.5 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month, falling back to the contraction range. This shows that due to the sharp change in the external environment, the decline in export orders has disturbed the manufacturing industry. The weakening of the April manufacturing PMI indicates that the decline in external demand has disturbed the macro - economy, and the domestic policy side needs to boost domestic demand to stabilize the total economic demand. The time window for implementing more proactive and effective macro - policies mentioned in the Politburo meeting is approaching, and in the future, monetary policy will cooperate with fiscal policy to work together, and interest rate and reserve requirement cuts will be implemented in a timely manner. In terms of open - market operations, near the holiday and the end of the month, the central bank made a net injection of liquidity in the open - market, and market interest rates also declined [4]