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2024、2025Q1基建板块经营承压,多家央企单季度现金流改善
Guotou Securities·2025-05-06 03:39

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market - B" for the construction industry [4]. Core Insights - The construction industry is currently under pressure, with revenue and net profit declining year-on-year. However, there are expectations for policy support and investment increases, particularly in infrastructure, which may improve the industry's fundamentals [17][18]. - The report highlights the potential for significant investment demand driven by urbanization and infrastructure upgrades, estimating a need for approximately 4 trillion yuan in investment over the next five years for urban underground pipeline renovations [16]. - The report suggests focusing on traditional state-owned enterprises in construction, which are currently undervalued and may benefit from improved financial metrics and increased infrastructure spending [11][12]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics Analysis - The construction sector is facing operational challenges in 2024 and Q1 2025, with revenue and net profit both experiencing year-on-year declines of 3.89% and 15.98% respectively in 2024, and 6.27% and 8.54% in Q1 2025 [17][19]. - The report emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand as a key support for economic growth amid external pressures such as tariffs from the U.S. [17]. Market Performance - The construction and decoration industry saw a decline of 1.26% in the week from April 28 to April 30, underperforming compared to major indices [46]. - The report notes that while the overall industry is struggling, certain segments like landscaping engineering have shown positive performance [46]. Company Announcements - The report includes a summary of major order announcements from companies within the industry, indicating ongoing activity despite the challenging environment [58]. Key Focus Stocks - The report identifies several key stocks to watch, including major state-owned construction firms and companies involved in infrastructure design and international engineering services, which are expected to benefit from increased investment and policy support [11][12][57].