2025信用月报之五：5月，理财整改下的占优策略-20250506

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In May, credit bond varieties with both coupon cost - effectiveness and liquidity are the preferred choices. For urban investment bonds, low - rated 3 - year - old and high - rated long - term bonds are recommended. For bank capital bonds, a balanced allocation strategy of extending duration for large - bank capital bonds and lowering credit rating for short - duration bonds is optimal [3][4]. - The rectification of wealth management's net - value smoothing methods will affect the investment preference for credit bonds, leading to an increase in the central value of credit spreads for ultra - long - duration and low - rated medium - and long - duration varieties [1][13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 5 - Month Credit Bonds: Prioritize Varieties with Both Coupon Cost - Effectiveness and Liquidity - Urban Investment Bonds: In April, due to the US tariff policy, the 10 - year Treasury yield dropped, and credit bond demand was weak. The short - duration performance of urban investment bonds was superior, with the 1 - year yield down 12 - 15bp and the credit spread narrowing 5 - 7bp. The trading sentiment of urban investment bonds fluctuated in April. Low - rated varieties remained actively traded, while the proportion of trades over 3 years decreased. In May, low - rated 3 - year and high - rated long - term urban investment bonds have potential for credit spread compression. High - grade long - term bonds are waiting for trading opportunities when interest rates decline [9][15][19]. - Bank Capital Bonds: In April, the yields of bank capital bonds declined, and short - duration bonds performed better. In May, if the bond market fluctuates, a balanced allocation strategy of extending duration for large - bank capital bonds and lowering credit rating for short - duration bonds can obtain good coupon income. If "loose monetary" policies are implemented, 4 - 5 - year large - bank capital bonds can increase returns [25][29][30]. 3.2 Urban Investment Bonds: Negative Net Financing, Short - Duration Performance is Superior - In April, the issuance scale of urban investment bonds decreased year - on - year, with negative net financing. The issuance sentiment was good, and the issuance proportion of bonds over 3 years increased. The issuance interest rates of all maturities decreased, with larger declines in the medium - and short - term. The net financing of urban investment bonds varied by province, with more than half of the provinces having negative net financing. The secondary - market trading sentiment first declined and then increased, with short - duration and low - rated bonds being actively traded [35][40][46]. 3.3 Industrial Bonds: State - owned Enterprises Supply Long - Duration Bonds, Yields Decline Across the Board - In April, the issuance and net financing of industrial bonds increased year - on - year. The issuance proportion of 3 - 5 - year and over - 5 - year bonds increased, and the supply of over - 5 - year bonds came from large state - owned enterprises. The issuance interest rates declined across the board, with larger declines in the short - and medium - term. The yields of industrial bonds declined across the board, with short - duration bonds performing better, and the credit spreads of most maturities widened passively [52][54][55]. 3.4 Bank Capital Bonds: Weak Performance of 5 - Year Bonds, Average Trading Sentiment - In April, the yields of bank capital bonds declined, and short - duration bonds performed better, while the 5 - year credit spreads generally widened. Historically, in May, the bank capital bond market has good sentiment, with yields declining and credit spreads narrowing. In May, a balanced allocation strategy of extending duration for large - bank capital bonds and lowering credit rating for short - duration bonds is recommended [25][29][30].