宝城期货甲醇早报-20250506

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The methanol 2509 contract is expected to maintain a volatile and stable trend. The short - term view is volatile and strong, the medium - term view is volatile and weak, and the overall reference view is a strong - side operation [1][5]. 3) Summary by Related Content a. Price Movement and Core Logic - The methanol 2509 contract shows a volatile trend in the short - term, is volatile and weak in the medium - term, and is volatile and strong on the day. The overall view is a strong - side operation because the positive factors prevail [1]. - The high production profit of domestic coal - to - methanol this year has led to high methanol operating rates and weekly output during the spring maintenance period, resulting in significant internal supply pressure. However, the slow loading of methanol cargoes in the Middle East has alleviated the pressure on domestic port methanol inventories, and the inventory reduction rhythm is smooth. The profit of downstream olefin futures has recovered, and the demand factor is gradually increasing. After the May Day holiday, affected by the US's increased economic sanctions on Iran and a slight rise in natural gas futures prices, the domestic methanol 2509 futures contract is expected to maintain a volatile and stable trend [5]. b. Price Calculation Notes - For varieties with night trading, the starting price is the night - trading closing price; for those without night trading, it is the previous day's closing price. The ending price is the day - trading closing price on the same day, and the price increase or decrease is calculated based on these [2]. - A decline of more than 1% is considered a fall, a decline of 0 - 1% is a volatile and weak trend, an increase of 0 - 1% is a volatile and strong trend, and an increase of more than 1% is a rise [3]. - The volatile and strong/weak trends only apply to the intraday view, and no distinction is made for the short - term and medium - term views [4].