Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The overseas market was bullish during the May Day holiday, and the A50 index rose. In the previous trading session, the stock index showed a mixed trend, with the computer sector leading the gains and the banking sector leading the losses. The total trading volume of the whole market was 1.19 trillion yuan. Among them, IH2505 fell 0.48%, IF2505 fell 0.17%, IC2505 rose 0.31%, and IM2505 rose 0.69%. The Shanghai Composite 50 and CSI 300 indices have a relatively high proportion of domestic demand, and if the disputes between China and the United States continue, they will be less affected and have higher defensiveness. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices have a relatively large proportion of growth industries, and consumer electronics products with more exports are more affected by the China-US tariff disputes. From the current trend, the A-share market still has resilience. In the future, the focus will be on the effective policies introduced by China to boost the domestic economy. After a short-term continuous shock, it is expected to choose a direction soon [2] Summary by Directory I. Stock Index Futures Market - IF Contracts: The previous two-day closing prices of IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far quarter) were 3757.80, 3724.80, 3670.00, and 3645.60 respectively; the previous day's closing prices were 3752.00, 3716.20, 3663.20, and 3637.80 respectively, with price drops of -6.40, -9.60, -7.00, and -6.00, and declines of -0.17, -0.26, -0.19, and -0.16 respectively. The trading volumes were 20059.00, 42386.00, 6879.00, and 2373.00 respectively; the open interests were 48409.00, 136357.00, 55233.00, and 7044.00 respectively, with increases of 2138.00, 2217.00, 390.00, and 1225.00 respectively [1] - IH Contracts: The previous two-day closing prices of IH contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far quarter) were 2639.00, 2621.20, 2589.80, and 2583.40 respectively; the previous day's closing prices were 2627.20, 2609.20, 2578.00, and 2575.80 respectively, with price drops of -12.80, -14.00, -12.80, and -10.40, and declines of -0.48, -0.53, -0.49, and -0.40 respectively. The trading volumes were 10889.00, 26366.00, 3669.00, and 774.00 respectively; the open interests were 17334.00, 44590.00, 17493.00, and 1567.00 respectively, with increases of 40.00, 1522.00, 576.00, and 75.00 respectively [1] - IC Contracts: The previous two-day closing prices of IC contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far quarter) were 5573.80, 5487.20, 5360.80, and 5275.60 respectively; the previous day's closing prices were 5590.20, 5497.00, 5365.60, and 5273.00 respectively, with price increases of 17.40, 9.40, 5.00, and 6.40, and increases of 0.31, 0.17, 0.09, and 0.12 respectively. The trading volumes were 21929.00, 38409.00, 8218.00, and 3883.00 respectively; the open interests were 46587.00, 94639.00, 44900.00, and 11692.00 respectively, with decreases of -1258.00, -1230.00, -57.00, and an increase of 1431.00 respectively [1] - IM Contracts: The previous two-day closing prices of IM contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far quarter) were 5868.00, 5773.60, 5610.00, and 5478.20 respectively; the previous day's closing prices were 5905.40, 5801.40, 5627.60, and 5500.60 respectively, with price increases of 40.60, 32.40, 20.60, and 22.20, and increases of 0.69, 0.56, 0.37, and 0.41 respectively. The trading volumes were 36606.00, 108819.00, 20491.00, and 6528.00 respectively; the open interests were 61187.00, 153214.00, 69465.00, and 18314.00 respectively, with decreases of -2106.00, -6247.00, -513.00, and an increase of 694.00 respectively [1] - Inter - month Spreads: The current inter - month spreads of IF next month - IF current month, IH next month - IH current month, IC next month - IC current month, and IM next month - IM current month were -35.80, -18.00, -93.20, and -104.00 respectively, compared with the previous values of -33.00, -17.80, -86.60, and -94.40 respectively [1] II. Stock Index Spot Market - CSI 300 Index: The previous value of the index points was 3770.57, the trading volume was 143.68 billion lots, and the total trading amount was 2448.20 billion yuan; the previous two - day value was 3775.08, 111.51 billion lots, and 1974.63 billion yuan respectively [1] - Shanghai Composite 50 Index: The previous two - day value of the index points was 2645.51, the trading volume was 28.04 billion lots, and the total trading amount was 538.94 billion yuan, with a decline of -0.47% [1] - CSI 500 Index: The previous value of the index points was 5631.82, the trading volume was 138.39 billion lots, and the total trading amount was 1816.17 billion yuan; the previous two - day value was 5604.91, 126.74 billion lots, and 1580.33 billion yuan respectively, with an increase of 0.48% [1] - CSI 1000 Index: The previous value of the index points was 5950.12, the trading volume was 195.46 billion lots, and the total trading amount was 2417.59 billion yuan; the previous two - day value was 5903.38, 186.02 billion lots, and 2194.12 billion yuan respectively, with an increase of 0.79% [1] - Industry Indexes: The previous values of the indexes of energy, raw materials, industry, and optional consumption were 2075.95, 2434.94, 2000.01, and 6326.87 respectively; the previous two - day values were 2080.22, 2445.34, 2003.97, and 6305.36 respectively, with changes of -0.21%, -0.43%, -0.20%, and 0.34% respectively. The previous values of the indexes of major consumption, medical and health, real estate and finance, and information technology were 22704.05, 7773.03, 6002.97, and 2298.09 respectively; the previous two - day values were 22637.13, 7694.19, 6074.25, and 2277.33 respectively, with changes of 0.30%, 1.02%, -1.17%, and 0.91% respectively. The previous values of the indexes of telecommunications and public utilities were 2712.24 and 2610.29 respectively; the previous two - day values were 2699.67 and 2619.69 respectively [1] III. Futures - Spot Basis - CSI 300: The previous value of the basis of IF current month - CSI 300, IF next month - CSI 300, IF next quarter - CSI 300, and IF far quarter - CSI 300 were -18.57, -54.37, -107.37, and -132.77 respectively; the previous two - day values were -17.28, -50.28, -105.08, and -129.48 respectively [1] - Shanghai Composite 50: The previous value of the basis of IH current month - Shanghai Composite 50, IH next month - Shanghai Composite 50, IH next quarter - Shanghai Composite 50, and IH far quarter - Shanghai Composite 50 were -5.96, -23.96, -55.16, and -57.36 respectively; the previous two - day values were -6.51, -24.31, -55.71, and -62.11 respectively [1] - CSI 500: The previous value of the basis of IC current month - CSI 500, IC next month - CSI 500, IC next quarter - CSI 500, and IC far quarter - CSI 500 were -41.62, -134.82, -266.22, and -358.82 respectively; the previous two - day values were -31.11, -117.71, -244.11, and -329.31 respectively [1] - CSI 1000: The previous value of the basis of IM current month - CSI 1000, IM next month - CSI 1000, IM next quarter - CSI 1000, and IM far quarter - CSI 1000 were -44.72, -148.72, -322.52, and -449.52 respectively; the previous two - day values were -35.38, -129.78, -293.38, and -425.18 respectively [1] IV. Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - Domestic Indexes: The previous values of the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index are not fully provided in the report [1] - Overseas Indexes: The previous values of the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P Index, and DAX Index were 22504.68, 36830.69, 5650.38, and 23344.54 respectively; the previous two - day values were 22119.41, 36452.30, 5686.67, and 23086.65 respectively, with changes of 1.74%, 1.04%, -0.64%, and 1.12% respectively [1] V. Macroeconomic Information - Trade Policy: US President Trump authorized the Department of Commerce and the US Trade Representative to impose a 100% tariff on all foreign - made movies entering the US, and he is negotiating trade agreements with many countries [2] - Regional Financial Cooperation: People's Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng attended and presided over the ASEAN + 3 Finance Ministers' and Central Bank Governors' Meeting. The meeting passed the establishment of a rapid financing facility funded by freely usable currencies such as the RMB under the Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralization [2] - Hong Kong Monetary Authority Intervention: Due to the Hong Kong dollar exchange rate hitting the strong - side convertibility undertaking, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority sold a record 60.543 billion Hong Kong dollars on Tuesday, selling for three consecutive days with a cumulative sale of 116.614 billion Hong Kong dollars to maintain the exchange rate stability [2] - Consumption during May Day: During the May Day holiday, the national consumer market was prosperous. The sales of key retail and catering enterprises increased by 6.3% year - on - year. The subsidy applications for car trade - ins exceeded 60,000, driving new car sales of 8.8 billion yuan; consumers bought 3.56 million household appliances, driving sales of 11.9 billion yuan; and bought 2.42 million digital products, driving sales of 6.4 billion yuan [2] - China - US Economic Relations: Chinese Ambassador to the US Xie Feng pointed out that China - US economic and trade cooperation is generally balanced and win - win. Imposing tariffs harms both sides, disrupts business operations and people's consumption, and causes fluctuations in the global financial market [2] VI. Industry Information - Data Infrastructure: The National Data Bureau will increase central financial investment to support the construction of data infrastructure projects, use ultra - long - term special treasury bond funds, and accelerate the formulation of the national data infrastructure plan [2] - Digital China Summit: The 8th Digital China Construction Summit ended. It signed 455 digital economy key projects with a total investment of 228 billion yuan, an increase of 8% and 12% respectively compared with the previous summit [2] - Housing Provident Fund: The Kunming Housing Provident Fund Management Center in Yunnan Province adjusted the maximum housing provident fund loan amount from 500,000 yuan for single - contributor families and 800,000 yuan for double - contributor families to 700,000 yuan and 1 million yuan respectively [2] - Banking Promotion: During the May Day consumption season, many banks launched time - limited promotions for large - value credit cards and standby funds, and a new round of consumer loan interest rate discounts was launched, with some banks' consumer loan interest rates dropping to a minimum of 3% [2]
申银万国期货早间策略-20250506
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo·2025-05-06 06:36