国新国证期货早报-20250506

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The A-share market showed mixed performance on April 30, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.23%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.51%, and the ChiNext Index up 0.83%. The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached 1.1693 trillion yuan, an increase of 147.2 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The coking coal and coke markets are facing supply - demand imbalances. Coke may face supply pressure, while the coking coal market remains in a loose supply pattern [1]. - The sugar market was affected by various factors during the holiday. The US economic situation and Brazilian sugar production influenced the price of US sugar, which first declined and then stabilized [1]. - The natural rubber market has a slightly positive demand outlook, with production expected to increase by 0.4% and demand by 1.5% in 2025 compared to 2024 [2]. - The soybean meal market may experience weak price fluctuations due to factors such as the increase in Brazilian soybean exports and the decline in the linkage between the domestic and US markets [3]. - The palm oil market in Malaysia is expected to see an increase in inventory in April 2025, with production and exports also increasing [4]. - The copper market has both positive and negative factors. Short - term prices may fluctuate, but the long - term upward trend remains [5]. - The iron ore market is in a state of seasonal supply increase, with short - term price fluctuations [6]. - The asphalt market is expected to show a fluctuating trend with increasing demand [8]. - The alumina market has an increasing supply due to new capacity and production resumption [9]. - The lithium carbonate market is expected to maintain a weak and fluctuating price trend due to oversupply [10]. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On April 30, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3279.03, down 0.23%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 9899.82, up 0.51%; the ChiNext Index closed at 1948.03, up 0.83%. The trading volume was 1.1693 trillion yuan, an increase of 147.2 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 index closed at 3770.57, down 4.51 [1]. Coke and Coking Coal - On April 30, the coke weighted index closed at 1542.6 yuan, down 13.1; the coking coal weighted index closed at 929.2 yuan, down 1.7. Coke may face supply pressure due to increased production, while the coking coal market remains in a loose supply pattern [1]. Zhengzhou Sugar - During the holiday, US sugar first declined and then stabilized. Brazilian sugar production in the first half of April was 73.1 tons, an increase of 1.25% year - on - year, higher than analysts' expectations. The 5 - month raw sugar contract delivery volume was about 1.48 million tons. The US economy showed signs of contraction [1]. Rubber - During the holiday, Southeast Asian rubber prices fluctuated slightly. OPEC +'s decision to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day since June affected the oil price, which in turn influenced the rubber market. The global natural rubber production is expected to increase by 0.4% and demand by 1.5% in 2025 compared to 2024 [2]. Soybean Meal - During the May Day holiday, CBOT soybeans first rose and then fell. Brazilian soybean exports increased, and the domestic soybean meal market may be affected by the arrival of Brazilian soybeans and the weakening linkage with the US market [3]. Palm Oil - During the holiday, the Malaysian palm oil market showed changes. In April 2025, production is expected to increase by 16.9%, exports by 9.7%, and inventory by 14.8% compared to March [4]. Shanghai Copper - During the May Day holiday, the outer - market copper price fluctuated. Positive factors include decreasing domestic copper inventory and uncertain global copper supply. Negative factors include weak US consumer confidence and concerns about future demand [5]. Cotton - During the May Day holiday, the outer - market cotton price rose slightly. Domestic policies to stabilize the economy were introduced, and Xinjiang's cotton sowing was basically completed [5]. Iron Ore - Recently, iron ore shipments have increased seasonally, port inventory has accumulated, and short - term prices are expected to fluctuate [6]. Asphalt - Recently, asphalt refinery operating rates have increased, and the planned production in May has increased both year - on - year and month - on - month. Demand is expected to further improve, and short - term prices will fluctuate [8]. Logs - On April 30, the log futures showed certain price ranges. Spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained stable. Port inventory decreased, and overall demand was weak [8]. Steel - The rebar market has good fundamentals, with production growth restricted by profits and consumption remaining resilient. The hot - rolled coil market is affected by tariff policies, but the impact may be gradually mitigated [8]. Alumina - The total production capacity of metallurgical - grade alumina in China has reached 109.22 million tons per year, and the operating capacity has increased by 3.48 million tons per year. New capacity and production resumption will increase supply [9]. Shanghai Aluminum - The macro - economic situation is complex, with the US tariff policy being uncertain. The supply side is stable, and the demand side shows regional differences [9]. Lithium Carbonate - The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate has been declining. Due to oversupply and falling ore prices, the price is expected to remain weak and fluctuate in the short term [10].