CHINA RAILWAY(601390) EBSCN·2025-05-06 06:45Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both A-shares and H-shares of China Railway (601390.SH/0390.HK) with current prices at 5.52 CNY and 3.38 HKD respectively [1]. Core Views - The company is experiencing operational pressure, with a significant decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, but new emerging businesses are growing rapidly [1][5]. - The company aims to improve cash flow and plans to increase mid-term dividends in 2025 [7][8]. Financial Performance - For 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 115.74 billion CNY, a decrease of 8.2% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 27.89 billion CNY, down 16.7% [4][5]. - In Q1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 24.86 billion CNY, a decline of 6.2% year-on-year, with net profit down 19.5% [4][5]. Business Segments - The main business segments, including infrastructure, design consulting, equipment manufacturing, real estate development, and resource utilization, saw revenue declines ranging from 2.5% to 13.1% in 2024 [5]. - The company’s overseas business revenue increased by 10.3% while domestic revenue decreased by 9.1% [5][6]. Emerging Business Growth - New contracts signed in 2024 totaled 2715.18 billion CNY, a decrease of 12.4% year-on-year, with domestic contracts down 14.0% and international contracts up 10.6% [6]. - Emerging business contracts grew by 11.3%, particularly in water conservancy and clean energy sectors, which saw increases of 50% and 22.6% respectively [6]. Cost Management and Dividends - The company effectively managed overall expenses in 2024, despite increased financial costs due to delayed payments from project owners [7]. - A proposed dividend of 1.78 CNY per 10 shares for 2024 reflects a payout ratio of 15.79%, an increase of 0.27 percentage points from the previous year [7]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for 2025 and 2026 has been adjusted downwards, with net profit estimates of 28.22 billion CNY and 28.64 billion CNY respectively, reflecting a decrease of 10% and 13% [8]. - The report maintains a "Buy" rating based on the rapid growth of emerging industries and overseas orders [8].