冠通期货资讯早间报-20250506

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - International precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold futures up 3.09% at $3343.50 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 1.29% at $32.68 per ounce. International oil prices weakened, and Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) agricultural futures contracts declined across the board. London base metals mostly rose [2][3]. - Multiple institutions lowered their price forecasts for Brent crude oil in 2025 and 2026, citing OPEC+ production increases and concerns about demand [9][12]. - The yields of US Treasury bonds increased collectively, while the yields of European bonds generally decreased. The US dollar index declined, and most non - US currencies rose [33][37]. 3. Summary by Directory Overnight Night - Market Trends - Precious metals: COMEX gold futures rose 3.09% to $3343.50 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 1.29% to $32.68 per ounce. The US tax policy proposal and central bank gold reserve expansion supported the market, while the oversupply in the photovoltaic industry pressured silver demand [2]. - Oil: US crude oil futures fell 1.82% to $57.23 per barrel, and Brent crude futures fell 1.55% to $60.34 per barrel. OPEC+ production increases and demand concerns suppressed oil prices [2]. - Agricultural products: CBOT agricultural futures contracts all declined, with soybean futures down 1.13% at 1046 cents per bushel, corn futures down 3.14% at 454.25 cents per bushel, and wheat futures down 2.21% at 531 cents per bushel [2]. - Base metals: LME tin rose 3.12% to $30880.00 per ton, nickel rose 1.31% to $15430.00 per ton, copper rose 1.20% to $9356.00 per ton, aluminum rose 1.06% to $2434.00 per ton, zinc rose 1.04% to $2615.00 per ton, and lead fell 1.30% to $1931.50 per ton [3]. Important Information Macroeconomic Information - Israel's security cabinet approved an expanded offensive in Gaza, and the Yemeni Houthi rebels attacked Israel's Ben - Gurion International Airport with a hypersonic ballistic missile [6]. - As of May 5, 2025, the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (European route) was 1379.07 points, down 3.5% from the previous period. The total number of global operating container ships increased to 7302, with a total operating capacity of 32215743 TEU and a total deadweight tonnage of 382174350 tons [7]. Energy and Chemical Futures - The six - month spread of Brent crude oil turned positive for the first time since December 2023, indicating an expected supply surplus. Multiple institutions, including ING, Barclays, and Goldman Sachs, lowered their price forecasts for Brent crude oil in 2025 and 2026. UBS Group expected seasonal growth in global oil demand and a rebound in Brent crude prices to $68 per barrel in the coming months [9][12]. Metal Futures - India's primary aluminum production increased from 416,000 tons in the 2023 - 24 fiscal year to 420,000 tons in the 2024 - 25 fiscal year, and refined copper production increased by 12.6% from 509,000 tons to 573,000 tons. The French bank economist warned of the negative impact of US tariff policies [14]. Black - Series Futures - From April 28 to May 4, 2025, the total iron ore arrivals at 47 ports in China decreased by 45,200 tons, and at 45 ports decreased by 63,100 tons. The total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased by 218,000 tons. The property market in the first quarter of 2025 stabilized, with the transaction area of new and second - hand houses increasing by 17% year - on - year [16][19]. Agricultural Futures - Malaysia's palm oil inventory, production, and exports in April 2025 were expected to increase. India's cotton arrivals on May 3, 2025, were estimated at 5627 tons. Shandong issued a strong convective weather warning. Indonesia's biodiesel consumption increased, and its palm oil blending ratio rose to 40%. Brazil's soybean harvest rate reached 97.7% as of May 3, 2025. The US soybean planting rate was 30% as of May 4, 2025, and the export inspection volume decreased [21][26]. Financial Markets Commodities - Similar to the overnight market trends, precious metals rose, oil prices fell, agricultural products declined, and base metals mostly rose. Multiple institutions lowered their price forecasts for Brent crude oil, and Goldman Sachs was bullish on gold prices [28][29]. Bonds - US Treasury yields rose collectively, while European bond yields generally fell [33]. Foreign Exchange - The offshore RMB against the US dollar rose nearly 900 points in two trading days, driven by factors such as strong May Day travel data, positive signals from Sino - US trade consultations, and the decline of the US dollar index. The US dollar index fell 0.25% to 99.79, and most non - US currencies rose [34][37]. Upcoming Economic Data and Events - A series of economic data will be released on May 6, 2025, including Australia's private building permits, China's Caixin services PMI, and the eurozone's PPI. There are also events such as the expiration of 1087 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases and speeches by European Central Bank officials [41][43].